Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic cyclohexanone market in 2022 fluctuated at a high level in the first half of the year, and declined unilaterally in the second half of the year. The price of cyclohexanone dropped from 10,700 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year to 9,190 RMB/ton at the end of the year (as of December 14), a decline of 14.11% for the whole year. The highest price of the year appeared in early of February, 12,533 RMB/ton, and the lowest point was the end of the year, with the maximum amplitude of 26.68%.

From the monthly K column of cyclohexanone in SunSirs, the domestic cyclohexanone market fell more than rose, especially in the second half of the year, mostly in a downward trend.

The following is a detailed analysis of the market trend of cyclohexanone in 2022 from two stages:

In the first half of 2022, the price of crude oil fluctuated at a high level, indicating that the situation of the entire industrial chain was better. Raw material pure benzene ran at a high level, with stable cost support. January and February coincided with the Chinese New Year. Downstream chemical fibers and solvents were stocked, resulting in a temporary shortage of cyclohexanone supply. In addition, during the Spring Festival, crude oil and pure benzene rose for a time, and they were reluctant to sell. In March and April, Russia and Ukraine faced a serious situation. There were many uncertainties in crude oil and pure benzene. The cyclohexanone market was dominated by the cost side, and the price fluctuated with the adjustment of crude oil and pure benzene. From May to June, with the maintenance devices resuming operation in succession, the supply increased, the shipment was affected, and the price of cyclohexanone continued to decline.

In the second half of 2022, the market price of cyclohexanone in July and August was driven by the high price of raw material pure benzene, which could still keep rising for a short time. With the downward consolidation of pure benzene price, weak downstream demand, and the impact of abundant supply, the cyclohexanone market had gone down all the way, which was difficult to boost. From September to October, in the traditional "golden September and silver October" peak season of the chemical industry, the cyclohexanone market showed a part of a warming trend following the good raw material pure benzene market, but the rise was not significant. The downstream caprolactam supply was abundant, and the chemical fiber order follow-up was slow. At the same time, some self use enterprises sold cyclohexanone on the market, and the supply of commodities increased, leading to a decline in the cyclohexanone market. Since November, the contradiction between supply and demand had become increasingly prominent. Early maintenance devices had been restarted. Downstream chemical fiber products, such as caprolactam, just was followed up by rigid demand. The market was slightly oversupplied, and the market transaction focus fell. In 2022, the cyclohexanone market ended in a weak position.

Looking at the whole cyclohexanone industry chain, in 2022, the products prices fell across the board. The price of pure benzene as the upstream raw material mainly guides the market trend of cyclohexanone, while the price and operating rate of caprolactam at the downstream also control the price trend of cyclohexanone to a certain extent. The price of pure benzene was mainly affected by crude oil. The pure benzene market rose unilaterally in the first half of the year and fell unilaterally in the second half of the year. The changes in the pure benzene and cyclohexanone markets were almost the same. The operation of downstream caprolactam units remained at about 60% throughout the year. The operation rate of the units was low, and the demand for raw materials was relatively small. The upstream and downstream of cyclohexanone industry were both negative.

In terms of import and export, the export volume of cyclohexanone in China continued to increase from 2018 to 2022. In 2018, domestic enterprises reduced the export of cyclohexanone due to the shortage of domestic demand and high profits. In 2019, with the increase of domestic cyclohexanone production capacity and output, cyclohexanone was sufficient for the domestic market, and some enterprises increased their exports. However, due to the limited overseas demand, the growth rate of export volume was difficult to improve. By 2022, the export volume of cyclohexanone was 48,300 tons, with an increase rate of 24.98% compared with that in 2021. Although the export volume of cyclohexanone in China was increasing, the export dependence was still within 2%. With the domestic cyclohexanone units being put into operation in succession, the export of cyclohexanone had increased, and the export dependence had also increased slightly, but it was still at a very low level. In 2022, the dependence on foreign exports was about 1.33%. In the future, cyclohexanone export may become a breakthrough to drive the domestic market. With the further increase of production capacity, the export volume may break through in 2023.

Market outlook

Due to the tight supply of cyclohexanone from November to the middle of December, downstream chemical fibers entered the market on demand, limiting the decline of cyclohexanone. The decline of cyclohexanone was much smaller than that of pure benzene, and the profit of cyclohexanone industry remained good. At present, the main reasons affecting the market of cyclohexanone are, on the one hand, the lack of support for the raw material pure benzene; on the other hand, the supply of commodities has increased and the market has entered a situation of oversupply. At present, the cost level fluctuates at a low level, and the commodity supply of cyclohexanone slightly exceeds the demand. In the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market may weaken in a narrow range. In the medium and long term, the general environment is gradually improving, and a certain amount of export demand will supplement domestic demand, and the market of cyclohexanone may recover.

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