Analysis review

In 2022, the domestic methane chloride production capacity increased by 260,000 tons/year, and the supply continued to be loose. According to SunSirs, an additional 100,000 t/a unit was put into production in Dongyue at the beginning of 2022; In May 2022, an additional 160,000 t/a methane chloride unit was put into operation in Dongying Huatai.

In 2022, the market demand of downstream refrigerant R32 for dichloromethane was low, and the starting level was low, so the support for dichloromethane was weak. According to SunSirs, the production capacity of R32 was 502,000 tons by September 2022. In the first half of 2022, the output of downstream air conditioners of R32 increased by only 1.1% year on year. The inventory of R32 accumulated and the start of construction was around 50%.

From January to October 2022, the accumulated imports of dichloromethane increased and exports decreased compared with last year, putting pressure on the domestic dichloromethane market. According to SunSirs, the accumulative import of dichloromethane from January to October 2022 was 86.5 tons, 10.27% higher than that in 2021; The total export volume was 128,915 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.92% compared with 2021.

Market outlook

Cost: Geopolitical crisis drove up energy prices, but global economic recession dragged down energy prices. In this context, the price of coal and other energy in 2023 will be lower than the peak in 2022 but higher than the average in recent years. Affected by this, methanol prices will also fluctuate widely, and the cost of dichloromethane is still under pressure.

Supply side: In 2023, there will still be new methane chloride devices such as Dongying Huatai Phase II which are planned to be put into operation, and the pressure on the supply side will continue to increase.

Demand side: the change of COVID-19's prevention and control policies may make the pharmaceutical industry start to improve; Refrigerant R 32, film, thinner and other industries recover at a certain level, and the demand for dichloromethane will increase.

To sum up, the dichloromethane analysts of SunSirs believe that the dichloromethane market in 2023 will show a trend of firstly low and then high. There may be a certain downturn trend in the first quarter. In the later period, with the increase of domestic consumption, the price will have an upward trend, but the upward range will not be too high due to supply side pressure.

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