According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market rose first and then fell. As the crude oil price rose again, the willingness to purchase downstream increased. In addition, due to the maintenance of some factories, the market supply was limited, which supported businesses' willingness to keep up. From December 9 to 16, the MTBE price rose from 6,775 RMB/ton to 6,837 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price rose by 0.92%, and the price fell by 6.34% month on month and 18.30% year on year.
On the cost side, on December 15, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 76.11 dollars/barrel, down 1.17 dollars or 1.5%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 81.21 dollars/barrel, down 1.49 dollars or 1.8%. Many central banks have raised interest rates and tightened policies, which have put pressure on risky assets. The risk of global economic recession increased, and the risk aversion made the oil market end its third consecutive rise, and the rebound lost momentum. On the whole, crude oil prices rose first and then fell this week, and the domestic oil industry chain MTBE product market was reorganized by the shock of the affected market.
On the demand side, the international crude oil futures price rebounded at a low level, the gasoline market in Shandong stopped falling and rose, and the optimization of epidemic control further promoted the improvement of gas station shipments in the retail market, and the refinery actively pushed prices when shipments improved. The light diesel market is difficult to improve. The weak demand in winter inhibits the purchase of middle and lower stream businesses. The refinery is still dominated by shipment volume. Gasoline sales turned to an upward trend, and its own sales improved gradually. MTBE demand as an additive followed the increase.
In terms of enterprises, the MTBE quotation of Shandong Chengtai New Materials decreased by 150 RMB/ton to 6,800 RMB/ton. Shi Dashenghua lowered MTBE by 150 RMB/ton, and offered 6,800 RMB/ton. Shandong Shenchi Chemical Co., Ltd. lowered MTBE by 50 RMB/ton, and offered 6,850 RMB/ton. Lihua Yilijin Petrochemical lowered MTBE by 100 RMB/ton to 6,800 RMB/ton. Dongming Qianhai Chemical lowered its MTBE quotation by 100 RMB/ton to 6,900 RMB/ton.
In terms of external market, as of the closing on December 15, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market had risen by 5.43 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at 829.82-831.82 dollars/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by 58.00 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at 896.49-896.99 dollars/ton. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States decreased by 27.55 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf closed at 861.26-861.6 dollars/ton (242.61-242.71 cents/gallon).
It is predicted in the future that with the rise in the prices of various raw materials in the near future, the cost of downstream gasoline merchants has increased significantly, and the enthusiasm for purchasing high priced raw materials has decreased. In addition, two factories in some areas have resumed operation, increasing the market supply, but it is difficult to improve the demand, and the contradiction between supply and demand will reappear. SunSirs MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market may decline in the short term.
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