According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of asphalt market has stopped falling and rose, mainly due to the rebound of crude oil price, the implementation of asphalt winter storage policy, the emergence of bottom price, and the release of part of the demand for rush work and stock up, driving the price up. From December 9 to 16, the average price of asphalt producers in Shandong Province rose from 3,475 RMB/ton to 3,497 RMB/ton, up 0.65%, down 15.15% month on month, and still up 13.15% year on year.
On the cost side, the international crude oil futures recorded significant growth for two consecutive trading days at the beginning of the week, and the cumulative growth of WTI and Brent crude oil for two trading days exceeded 6%. The oil market staged a rebound at the bottom, mainly because the US dollar continued to fall and short-term supply tension worries overshadowed the pessimistic expectations of demand. International crude oil futures closed lower in the middle of the week. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 76.11 dollars/barrel, down 1.17 dollars or 1.5%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 81.21 dollars/barrel, down 1.49 dollars or 1.8%. Many central banks have raised interest rates and tightened policies, which have put pressure on risky assets. The risk of global economic recession increased, and the risk aversion made the oil market end its third consecutive rise, and the rebound lost momentum. On the whole, the rising international crude oil price supports the refinery cost, and the asphalt cost is good for a short time.
On the supply side, the main manufacturers in Shandong Province raised their quotations twice a week, with a range of about 30-50 RMB/ton. The operating rate of the devices was generally maintained at 6-70%, mainly maintaining the contract orders. The refinery's shipment situation is general, and the inventory has increased significantly. However, with the introduction of the winter storage policy, the operators' enthusiasm for stocking up is fair, and the refinery's inventory is expected to decline next week.
On the demand side, some downstream regions in the northern region copied the bottom and prepared goods. After the release of public health events in the southern region, terminal demand increased, driving refinery shipments to improve.
It is predicted that the rise of spot price will drive the increase of terminal rigid demand and warehousing demand, some spot resources will be slightly strained, and the market mainstream low-end quotation will rise steadily. SunSirs asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market may rise in a narrow range in the short term.
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