Price trend

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell in shock this week. By the end of this week, spot copper had offered 65,755 RMB/ton, down 0.72% from the price of 66,230 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week, and down 4.02% year on year.

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of SunSirs, in the past three months, the copper price rose for 6 weeks, fell for 5 weeks, and remained flat for 1 week. Recently, the copper price was slightly retreating.

Analysis review

Macro: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50bp as scheduled, and the benchmark interest rate rose to 4.25-4.5%. The official speech was slightly hawkish. In addition, the US retail sales in November and China's total retail sales of consumer goods both fell more than expected, with poor data.

Supply side: due to the early maintenance of some smelters and the slowing down of the production pace at the processing side, part of the smelters were planned to take a holiday in advance, and the copper output decreased. It is estimated that the domestic output in December will be 887,900 tons. In November, the domestic electrolytic copper output was 899,600 tons, down 0.2% month on month, slightly lower than the scheduled output.

Demand side: In the end, the traditional demand was flat, the traditional peak season of air conditioners was less than expected, and the production and sales of automobiles were slowing down. Some copper rod enterprises had relatively high inventory of finished products, and the effect of copper tube peak season was not obvious. The copper plate and strip industry was in the off season.

Market outlook

To sum up, the actual demand has entered the off-season, the terminal traditional demand performance is flat, and the global dominant inventory is low, which supports the copper price. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term.

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