According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market was operating at a low level. From December 12 to 19 (as of 15:00 p.m.), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 2690 RMB/ton to 2633 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 2.11%, 7.22% month on month and 3.03% year on year. The main reason is supply and demand. In terms of supply, most production enterprises focus on de stocking, and traditional downstream enterprises also have early parking performance, resulting in weak overall demand performance.

As of the closing of December 19, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell. The main methanol futures contract 2305 opened at 2,610 RMB/ton, the highest price was 2,632 RMB/ton, the lowest price was 2,562 RMB/ton, and it closed at 2,571 RMB/ton, down 43, or 1.64%, from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,273,897, the position was 976,993, and the daily increase was 91,518.

In terms of cost, raw coal: the situation of epidemic prevention and control in the main production areas has improved slightly, and the supply of coal has rebounded. In the short term, due to the impact of cold air, the daily consumption of the power plant rebounds, and the demand for coal increases. However, with the support of long-term coal cooperation, the market coal procurement is limited, and the coal price is expected to operate weakly and stably. The cost of methanol is favorable.

Demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: Chongqing Wanlilai plant is planned to stop, and the demand for dimethyl ether may decrease; Downstream acetic acid: Celanese plans to start up, and the demand for acetic acid may increase; Downstream formaldehyde: Shandong Lianyi Plant reduced its load, Zibo Diancun Plant stopped, and the demand for formaldehyde may decrease; Downstream MTBE: Some overhaul plants are planned to start, and MTBE demand may increase. Methanol demand is mixed.

For the supply side, Chongqing Cabelle, Chongqing Wanlilai, Jiangyou Wanli equipment maintenance; Production reduction of Anhui Haoyuan and Xinjiang Guanghui units; Early maintenance or production reduction of Jiutai (Tuoxian County), Inner Mongolia, Shanxi Lanhua, Shanxi Yueanda, Anhui Huaxin, Shanxi Yaxin and Shanxi Jinfeng units are now resumed. The overall recovery volume was greater than the maintenance volume, the capacity utilization rate increased, and the methanol supply side was negative.

In terms of external market, as of December 16, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 364.00-365.00 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton. The US Gulf methanol market closed at 102.75-103.75 cents/gallon, up 2 cents/ton; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 318.00-319.00 euros/ton, up 0.5 euros/ton.

The future forecast shows that the cost side of methanol is supported, and the demand side of the supply side is mixed. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market may be dominated by shocks.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.