According to the data of SunSirs, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of December 18 was 6,086.00 RMB/ton (tax included), 1.93% lower than the price of 6,206.00 RMB/ton on December 12.

On December 18, the fuel oil commodity index was 123.26, unchanged from the previous day, 9.97% lower than the cycle's highest point of 136.91 (2022-11-17), and 167.49% higher than the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

International crude oil prices rose, supported by the cost of ship fuel market. According to SunSirs, as of December 18, the 180CST self raised low sulfur quotation of fuel oil in the Zhoushan area of CNGC was 6,000 RMB/ton, and the 120CST self raised low sulfur quotation of fuel oil was 6,100 RMB/ton; The price of 180CST self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6,180 RMB/ton, and the price of 120CST self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6,230 RMB/ton.

International crude oil prices rose. The US ISM non manufacturing index unexpectedly increased in November, reflecting that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve's transition from "dove" to "eagle", which may disappoint the Federal Reserve's previous desire to slow interest rate increases. The market provides the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path. The activity of American oil and gas drilling platforms has decreased, OPEC+ has maintained its production reduction measures, and the recent international crude oil market has experienced a "six consecutive declines" or a technical rebound that temporarily supported oil prices. However, because the inflation index is still higher than expected, the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates by 50 basis points is still high. In addition, in the context of the increased risk of global economic recession, the slowing down of demand growth in the future is a certainty. The overall economy is weak, and the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic. The economic weakness has depressed oil prices.

Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is reported that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): As of the week of December 14, Singapore's fuel inventory had decreased by 217,000 barrels, falling to a two-week low of 20,089,000 barrels. Singapore's middle distillate oil inventory fell 113,000 barrels to 6.953 million barrels, a four week low. Singapore's light distillate stocks rose 303,000 barrels to a two-week high of 13.691 million barrels.

Future forecast: the international crude oil price trend is unstable, the domestic ship fuel market has a strong wait-and-see mood, the terminal replenishment capacity is limited, and the purchase is mainly based on demand, and the transaction is average. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6,000-6,300 RMB/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6,100-6,350 RMB/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil in the near future will be dominated by the weak.

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