Price trend

On December 15, the average price of propane (Shandong) market was 4,195 RMB/ton, and on December 16, the average price was 4,850 RMB/ton, up 15.61% in the day, up 2.65% compared with the same period of last year. Propane market ushered in the "sprint" market at the end of the year.

Analysis review        

Compared with 2018, the overall propane market is relatively flat this year. Even in the "golden September and silver October" of the traditional sales season, the trend of propane market is slightly weaker. Since September, in addition to the rise driven by the "attack on Saudi Arabia", the trend in the later period was relatively flat, mainly with small shocks. But near the end of the year, propane market has made a new breakthrough, sprint to the highest point of the year.

The domestic propane market is the most representative in Shandong Province. Most refineries in Shandong Province increased by 300-800 RMB/ton this time, which completely changed the situation that the propane market continues to be "tepid". The main influence factor of the rise is driven by the sharp rise in imports. At present, the shortage of international spot resources, the increasing cost and the decrease of propane flowing into China have led to the wide rise of domestic port price, which has led to the sharp rise of refining price. Under the downstream "buy up but not buy down" mentality, entering the market is more positive; manufacturers ship smoothly and inventory is not under pressure. At present, most of the refinery prices are close to the 5,000 RMB mark, and some manufacturers have broken through.

Saudi Aramco's CP announced in December that propane butane were all slightly increased. Propane rose to US $ 440/ton, up US $ 10/ton from last month; butane was US $ 455/ton, up US $ 10/ton from last month.

Market outlook

Propane analysts of the business agency believe that the current overall inventory of the terminal is relatively low, and the supply of goods is tight. In addition, the high prices of imports and international markets support the market mentality, and downstream enthusiasm remains. The propane market is expected to rise in the short term.

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