In 2022, the market of BR will fluctuate in the early stage and fall sharply in the later stage. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the high price of BR in 2022 will be 14,980 RMB/ton in June, and the low price will be 10,470 RMB/ton in December, with an amplitude of 43.08%; As of December 28, the price was 10,580 RMB/ton, down 25.96% from 14,290 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year.

From January to June, the market of BR fluctuated and consolidated. On the one hand, the outbreak of Russia Ukraine conflict pushed up the international crude oil price. The price of raw butadiene rose 171.75% in half a year. Theoretically, one ton of butadiene is needed to produce one ton of BR. The cost of BR was strongly supported in the first half of the year; On the other hand, there is no obvious improvement in demand, which suppresses Shunding's initiative. In the first half of the year, BR was in shock and consolidation under the game of cost and demand.

In the middle of June, the market of BR started to fall sharply. First of all, the price of raw materials fell back from a high level. The price of raw material butadiene fell by 42.26% from the intra year point to December 28, and the cost of BR fell significantly. Secondly, in the second half of the year, Qixiang, Chuanhua, Shandong Yihua and other BR companies added 190,000 tons/year of BR production capacity and put it into production, increasing the pressure on the supply side. Finally, it is always difficult for downstream tire enterprises to significantly increase their construction and their demand is weak. Three factors led to a sharp drop in BR in the second half of the year.

Supply side: In the second half of 2022, the new production capacity of BR industry will be put into centralized production, and the pressure on the supply side of BR will increase. According to SunSirs, Qixiang Tengda's new 40,000 t/a Shunding plant was put into production in August, Shandong Yihua's new 100,000 t/a Shunding plant was put into production in late November, and Zhejiang Chuanhua's new 50,000 t/a Shunding plant was put into production in mid November. The 100,000 t/a unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical is still planned to be put into trial operation in the later period. As of December 28, the commencement of BR plant was listed.

Demand side: In 2022, there will be no significant increase in the commencement of downstream tire enterprises. The output of tire casings will basically decline on a year-on-year basis. Weak demand side will drag down the BR market. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in November 2022, 74.812 million tire casings were produced domestically, a year-on-year decline of 7.0%; From January to November, 787.920 million tire casings were produced, down 4.0% year on year.

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of SunSirs, in 2023, Zhejiang Petrochemical's 100,000 t/a BR new plant will be put into production, and Yangzi Petrochemical's 100,000 t/a BR plant is planned to restart, so the supply side of BR will still face pressure in 2023. With the further optimization of the epidemic prevention policy, it is expected that the domestic consumption power will gradually increase at the end of the first quarter, and the downstream construction may increase to a certain extent. The domestic demand has a certain support for BR. On the whole, in 2023, if there is no significant rise and fall in cost, BR will fluctuate between 10,500 RMB/ton and 13,000 RMB/ton.

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