1. Price Trend
As of December 13, the average ex-factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 6,263.33 RMB/ton, 0.79% lower than 6,313.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week, and the actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha was about 6,300 RMB/ton.
On December 13, the naphtha commodity index was 77.30, unchanged from the previous day, 24.67% lower than 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and 83.00% higher than 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
2. Analysis ofInfluencing Factors
Product: the price of refined naphtha fell slightly last week, and trading was basically stable.
Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, U.S. WTI crude oil was $59.20/barrel at the beginning of the week, and $59.18/barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of -0.03%; Brent crude oil was $64.39/barrel at the beginning of the week, and $64.20/barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of -0.30%. The results of OPEC production reduction meeting exceeded the market expectation, which was good for the oil market, EIA inventory data was completely negative, and the international crude oil market was in high volatility. Downstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic toluene market trend was stable last week, up about 0.67% as of last Friday, and the current mainstream price in East China is about 5,650-5,700 RMB/ton. Last week, the trend of isomerized xylene was stable, and the turnover shrank slightly. As of last Friday, it rose about 0.43%. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 6,000 RMB/ton. Last week, the domestic PX price trend was stable, and the market price was about 6,700 RMB/ton.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there were four kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top 3 commodities are petroleum coke (1.49%), fuel oil (0.66%) and LPG (0.59%). There were ten kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products were MTBE (- 3.90%), LNG (- 3.03%) and methanol (- 1.51%). Last week's average up and down was - 0.52%.
3. Market Forecast
According to energy analysts of SunSirs, last week's naphtha refining fell slightly, suppliers resisted high price supply, the market was full of wait-and-see sentiment, and just purchase in need. It is expected that the price of naphtha refining and hydrogenation will be stable as a whole in the near future, with an average price range of 6,200-6,400 RMB/ton.
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