According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market fell first and then rose, which was in shock. From December 1 to 30 (as of 15:00 p.m.), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 2,681 RMB/ton to 2,660 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price dropped by 0.81% and rose by 12.00% year on year.

At the beginning of this month, the domestic methanol market was weak and volatile, mainly due to supply and demand. The operating rate of the production enterprises has increased, while the source of imported goods continues to arrive at the port, and the supply is abundant. However, the existing demand has not been significantly boosted. From the first ten days of the month to the end of the month, the supply side production enterprises mainly focus on de stocking, and the traditional downstream also have early parking performance, resulting in weak overall demand performance.

As of the closing of December 30, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2305 opened at 2,567 RMB/ton, the highest price was 2,656 RMB/ton, the lowest price was 2,562 RMB/ton, and the closing price was 2,653 RMB/ton, up 91, or 3.55%, from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,366,135 hands, the position was 1,053,011 hands, and the daily increase was 84,631 hands.

In terms of cost, the coal price has been lowered. In December, due to the impact of public health events near the end of the year, the supply of coal mines in Inner Mongolia and other places was tightened, mainly to ensure supply, but the enthusiasm of downstream procurement was poor, and the sales of coal mines were average. The positive cost of methanol disappeared.

Demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: Henan Xinlianxin device is planned to restart at the beginning of next month, Chongqing Wanlilai and Henan Yongcheng devices have not yet set a restart time, and next month is approaching the Spring Festival, the factory has a load reduction plan, and the demand for dimethyl ether may decrease; Downstream acetic acid: Henan Yongcheng Longyu continues to shut down, other units operate normally, and the demand for acetic acid may increase; Downstream formaldehyde: Shandong, Guangxi, Jiangsu, Henan and Hebei are expected to store, park and leave the internal formaldehyde separation devices, while the remaining small amount of formaldehyde devices are expected to store and reduce formaldehyde, and the demand for formaldehyde may decrease. Methanol demand surface is negative.

For the supply side, only one unit in Yunnan is planned to be overhauled in January, involving a total capacity of 260,000 tons/year. In December, a total of 6 units are expected to be restored, involving a production capacity of 2.61 million tons/year. Therefore, the output in January is expected to increase to 7,012,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate may increase to 75.72%. The operating rate of the unit is relatively high, and the methanol supply is not profitable.

In terms of external market, as of December 29, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 364.00-365.00 dollars/ton. US Gulf Methanol Market closed at 107.75-108.75 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 321.00-322.00 euros/ton.

It is predicted that methanol cost will support or weaken, supply will be abundant and demand will decrease. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market may suffer from shock.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.