Price trend

In 2022, the MIBK market fluctuated in a narrow range to the beginning of the second quarter. The epidemic broke out in many places, the terminal consumption was sluggish, and the domestic trade orders were seriously insufficient. The market went down all the way to the beginning of September, hitting the lowest point of 9,580 RMB/ton at the end of the year. In September, as the upstream products of the industrial chain recovered, the MIBK market stopped falling and rebounded under the support of cost. In the fourth quarter, the maintenance of domestic factories was concentrated, and MIBK continued to rise to 15,600 RMB/ton at the end of the year under the support of a favorable supply side. The annual increase was 9.51%, with an amplitude of 61.5%.

The first stage (January to August): the negative cost side superimposed logistics factors, and the domestic MIBK market declined significantly.

On January 1, 2022, the domestic market offered 14,200 RMB/ton, then the market fell slightly and then retreated, and the market offer continued to be 13,900 RMB/ton in late April. On the whole, the market fluctuated slightly from January to April.

Subsequently, the epidemic situation gradually expanded, the logistics and transportation were limited, and under the influence of the sharp decline of upstream crude oil, the raw material acetone fell broadly, and the downstream terminal was filled with bad news. It was difficult to have real order negotiations on the site, and the pressure on traders grew day by day. The market fell sharply from May to early September. As of September 10, the market offer was 9,850 RMB/ton, a cumulative decline of 33%.

The second stage (September to December): cost support, but more under the leadership of supply and demand, MIBK market started to rise all the way.

In September, as the hot weather around the country subsided, the impact of various policies such as power and production restriction slowed down. Many terminal industries returned to work after the off-season. The main raw material, acetone, rose by 31% in the mainstream negotiation price of the East China market in September. Supported by costs, the MIBK market rose significantly.

In the fourth quarter, the maintenance of MIBK enterprises was concentrated. Jilin Petrochemical, Ningbo Zhenyang, Dongying Yimeide and Zhenjiang Li Changrong all stopped for maintenance. The supply side was tightened, while the procurement of downstream antioxidant 4020 was improved. Supported by the favorable supply and demand, the MIBK market rose significantly in the fourth quarter, rising to 15,500 RMB/ton at the end of the year.

In 2022, the total output of China's MIBK was 104,500 tons, an increase of 16% month on month, and the monthly average output was 8,700 tons. The annual capacity utilization rate was relatively high. The operating rate was low from November to December. Under the tight supply, the market price increased by 15% each month, which showed that the supply had a great impact on the market. In 2022, the industry prosperity and external environmental impact restrained terminal demand, and the overall decline was significant. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs the average price in 2022 was 12,214.4 RMB/ton, down 41% compared with 20,694.8 RMB/ton in 2021.

Market outlook

From the perspective of SunSirs it is expected that the mibk market will continue to rise in January as 2023 enters. On the one hand, the supply will decline significantly, and the spot circulation will be low and relatively concentrated. On the other hand, there may be a replenishment plan for downstream antioxidants near manufacturers. Merchandise holders continued to push up, and the market was strong or continued to push up. In the medium and long term, MIBK has only 125,000 tons of capacity in China, most of which are contracted to supply antioxidants in major downstream industries, with limited market circulation. In the later period, it should continue to pay attention to the fluctuation of raw material acetone and the change of main downstream demand.

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