Price trend

The domestic MIBK market continued to rise, and the negotiation range rose to 16,300-16,800 RMB/ton. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the national average price was 14,766 RMB/ton on January 2, 16,450 RMB/ton on January 4, and 11.4% within three days after New Year's Day.

Analysis review

On the supply side, the current operating rate of MIBK industry is 40%, and the continued rise of MIBK market is mainly supported by the tight supply side. The amount of spot circulating resources is limited, the rising sentiment of the commodity holders remains unchanged, and the quotation is high. In January, the tight supply side may continue, and MIBK is hard to give up profits.

On the demand side, there are few large orders in the downstream, mainly small orders need to be purchased, and the participation of middlemen has also been improved. In addition, the logistics cost is high, and the arrival price is high everywhere, and it is difficult to give up profits when the quantity is small. It is expected that the downstream will follow up with small orders on demand before the festival.

From the perspective of cost, the raw material acetone fell broadly. On the 4th, the negotiation price of acetone market in East China was 5,100-5,200 RMB/ton, MIBK's profit margin increased again, the market trading atmosphere cooled, and Sinopec enterprises reduced the listing price, increasing the wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. Although the MIBK market continued to rise, the operating rate of the downstream industry was low, and the demand for raw material acetone decreased. At present, the correlation between acetone and downstream MIBK is low, and the lower cost makes MIBK more profitable.

Market outlook

In the view of SunSirs, in the short term, the tight market supply will continue to affect the MIBK market, supporting the market to continue the state of high prices. However, the downstream is limited in the pursuit of growth, and there are few large orders. After the small orders just need to follow up, the purchase intention will weaken. SunSirs expects that MIBK will have a limited rise in the future market and pay attention to the procurement before the festival.

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