In 2022, the price of aluminum fluoride fell in a U-shaped shock

According to the data of SunSirs, the aluminum fluoride market first fell and then rose in 2022, showing a U trend in general. As of December 31, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 12,200 RMB/ton, down 15.08% from 14,366.67 RMB/ton on January 1. The highest price of aluminum fluoride in the year was 14,366.67 RMB/ton, the lowest price was 10,650 RMB/ton, and the maximum amplitude in the year was 25.87%.

The trend of aluminum fluoride in 2022 was mainly divided into three stages

Phase I: rapid decline from January to March

At this stage, the cost of raw materials decreased, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell sharply. In 2022, aluminum fluoride changed from the soaring market in the second half of 2021 to a rapid decline. As the price of raw materials continued to fall, the cost of aluminum fluoride decreased, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell rapidly in the first quarter. As of March 31, the price of aluminum fluoride was 10,875 RMB/ton, 24.30% lower than that on January 1.

PhaseⅡ: shock consolidation stage from April to August

At this stage, the price of fluorite rose in shock, the price of hydrofluoric acid fell in shock, the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials fluctuated and consolidated, the demand for aluminum fluoride was weak, the rising support of aluminum fluoride was insufficient, and the downward pressure was limited. The price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and consolidated.

Phase Ⅲ: shock and rising stage from September to December

Since late August, power rationing in Sichuan had spread to the whole country. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum fluoride enterprises had declined, the supply of aluminum fluoride was insufficient, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite rose in shock, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, and the price of aluminum fluoride rose in shock. But at the same time, due to the lack of quality of the "golden September and silver October", the demand for aluminum fluoride was less than expected, and the impetus for aluminum fluoride to rise was limited. With the price of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite falling in December, the price of aluminum fluoride fell slightly in December.

Aluminum fluoride export volume

According to the data released by the customs, the cumulative export volume of aluminum fluoride from January to November 2022 was 94,674 tons, a sharp increase over previous years. The export volume of aluminum fluoride increased, and the demand for aluminum fluoride increased, supporting the rise of aluminum fluoride to a certain extent.

Market outlook

In 2022, the aluminum fluoride market fell first and then rose. In the first quarter, affected by the decline of raw materials, the price of aluminum fluoride fell sharply. Although the quality of the "Golden September and Silver October" was insufficient, the aluminum fluoride enterprises' operating rate in September and October was insufficient, and the aluminum fluoride supply was tight, leading to the rising price of aluminum fluoride, and the overall aluminum fluoride market supply and demand was relatively balanced in 2022. In the future, the epidemic situation will continue and the demand for aluminum fluoride will remain weak. In the first quarter of 2023, the aluminum fluoride market may continue to weaken in the same way as that in December 2022. The second and third quarters of 2023 may be the rising range of hydrofluoric acid fluorite, and aluminum fluoride has a certain rise support.

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