Price: 524.1 RMB/barrel

Analysis: The overnight international oil price fell sharply on Wednesday, and WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil both fell by more than 5%. Affected by this, SC crude oil in the internal market fell rapidly and sharply on Thursday. On the 5th, the main contract of SC crude oil fell 5.75% to close at 524.1 RMB/barrel. Macro: The minutes of the recent meeting released by the Federal Reserve show that interest rates may remain high for a period of time. The continued tightening of monetary policy has raised the risk that the United States and major developed economies around the world will fall into recession, which in turn will depress fuel demand, and oil prices will come under pressure. The supply side is also negative, and there is a risk of oversupply. On Wednesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said that the US crude oil inventory and gasoline inventory rose last week. As of December 30, crude oil inventory increased by about 3.3 million barrels and gasoline inventory increased by about 1.2 million barrels. In addition, the recent winter snowstorms in the United States are still fermenting, which has led to the frustration of the local aviation industry, the cancellation of large areas of flights, and the pressure on the demand for aviation kerosene and gasoline; In addition, the snowstorms in many places reduced the crude oil processing capacity in North America, resulting in the accumulation of crude oil, and then suppressed oil prices.

Forecast: The short-term supply pressure is heavy, the demand side is also weak, and the oil market may maintain a weak trend in the near future. In the medium and long term, the demand side faces negative macroeconomic feedback suppression. However, with the increase of OPEC+production restriction policy or adjustment efforts, the impact of the decline in Russian oil exports will play a role. Supply and demand will seek to rebalance, and oil prices still have the opportunity to rebound.

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