Price trend

According to the data of SunSirs, the average price of silver market on January 5, 2023 was 5,262.67 RMB/kg, a daily drop of 1.23%, 1.54% lower than the early average price of 5,345 RMB/kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (January 1); Compared with the early average spot market price of 4,563.33 RMB/kg in early November 2022 (November 1), the increase was 15.33%.

On January 5, 2023, the spot market price of gold was 413.29 RMB/g, with a daily increase of 0.35%, 0.83%% higher than the early average price of 405.91 RMB/g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (January 1); Compared with the early average price of 392.11 RMB/g in the spot market in early November 2022 (November 1), the increase was 5.40%.

Analysis review

In 2022, the upward and downward trend of precious metal gold and silver tended to converge. However, silver declined deeply from April to August, and the recent recovery was more obvious. In December, silver continued the strong market of last month, and gold began to consolidate at a high level. In 2023, the silver price stagnated, and the gold price trend was better. At present, the annual increase of precious metal gold and silver is approaching.

The price trend of precious metal gold and silver deviated on the 5th. On the one hand, silver had risen more rapidly than gold since November. After the price rose to a relatively high level, there was a profit taking market in the speculative market for security demand; On the other hand, the monetary attribute of gold was strengthened, and the physical demand attribute of silver was easily driven by the overall market of nonferrous metals. On the 5th, the intraday market of bulk commodities was weak, and the silver price was loosened.

The monetary attribute of precious metals gold strengthened

The US and Europe raised interest rates, and other central banks' interest in gold reserves increased. By the end of November, the gold holdings of domestic central banks had increased from 62.64 million troy ounces in October to 63.67 million troy ounces; The net increase in November was 32 tons. In October 2022, the total gold reserves of global central banks increased by 31 tons, and the gold reserves of global central banks had risen to the highest level since November 1974 (36,782 tons).

Fundamentals of transaction data

On January 4, the gold position of the world's largest gold ETF-SPDR Gold Trust was 916.77 tons, 0.87 tons less than the previous trading day.

As of January 3, COMEX gold inventory was about 231,797,580 ounces, 101 ounces less than the previous day; COMEX silver inventory was about 301.90849 million ounces, 112.8711 million ounces more than the previous day.

Macro news

According to the data released by the Bank of Japan on the 4th, the purchase amount of long-term treasury bonds in December 2022 reached 16.1809 trillion yen. The annual purchase volume reached 111.0607 trillion yen, the highest level since 2016 (119.2416 trillion yen) when the introduction of short-term and long-term interest rate operations (yield curve controls YCC). Due to the expectation of interest rate increase in the United States and Europe and the adjustment policy of the Bank of Japan, the government bonds were sold off, and the Bank of Japan increased its purchases of government bonds aimed at curbing the rise in interest rates.

Future market of precious metals

The policy space for interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States is gradually narrowing, which depresses the price of precious metals. At the same time, the central banks of other countries act to prevent domestic currency devaluation, leading to the strengthening of the monetary attributes of precious metals recently, supporting precious metals to a certain extent. It is expected that in the short term, the overall market of precious metals will fluctuate to be stronger.

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