According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market declined by a narrow margin. From January 3 to 6, the MTBE price fell from 6,680 RMB/ton to 6,420 RMB/ton, a 3.82% drop in the cycle, a 6.03% month on month drop and a 5.85% year-on-year increase. After the festival, as the price of crude oil continued to fall, and gasoline sales weakened, and as the price of raw materials rose to a high level, the cost of downstream gasoline merchants increased significantly, and they lost interest in purchasing high priced raw materials. With the weakening of demand, the sales of merchants dropped again, and the merchants in some northern regions were blocked from shipping one after another, so they had no choice but to open the window of downward adjustment.
On the cost side, international crude oil declined by a narrow margin. On January 6, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil of SunSirs was 72.84 dollars/barrel, down by -7.09% compared with January 1 (78.40 dollars/barrel). The short-term supply pressure is heavy, the demand side is also weak, and the oil market may maintain a weak trend in the near future. In the medium and long term, the demand side faces negative macroeconomic feedback suppression. However, with the increase of OPEC+ production restriction policy or adjustment efforts, the impact of the decline in Russian oil exports will play a role. Supply and demand will seek to rebalance, and oil prices still have the opportunity to rebound. The domestic oil industry chain MTBE product market was affected by the market shock and fell.
On the demand side, recently, with the holiday price rising to a high level, downstream costs have increased significantly, leading to a weaker demand for raw materials from downstream businesses. In addition, the export space is limited in the near future, resulting in few export negotiations and average overall demand. Downstream businesses hold on to the principle of multi dimension, and need to purchase mainly, which is difficult to improve significantly. Gasoline sales have turned down, and their own sales have been sluggish. The demand for MTBE as an additive has decreased significantly.
In terms of enterprises, the MTBE quotation of Shandong Chengtai New Materials decreased by 100 RMB/ton to 6,300 RMB/ton. The MTBE of Shi Dashenghua is stable, and the quotation is 6,300 RMB/ton. The MTBE of Shandong Shenchi Chemical Co., Ltd. is stable, and the quotation is 6,300 RMB/ton. The MTBE of Lihua Yilijin Petrochemical is stable, and the quotation is 6,400 RMB/ton. Dongming Qianhai Chemical's MTBE quotation is 6,700 RMB/ton.
In terms of external market, as of the closing of January 5, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market had dropped by 25.00 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at 810.99-812.99 dollars/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market rose by 14.75 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at 1,102.74-1,103.24 dollars/ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market rose by 2.81 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf price closed at 1,005.46-1,005.81 dollars/ton (283.23-283.33 cents/gallon).
Future market forecast shows that downstream demand is still weak and there is still pressure on merchants to sell. MTBE analysts from the business agency believe that China domestic MTBE market is sluggish in the short term.
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