Price trend

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell first and then rose this week. By the end of this week, spot copper had offered 65,161.67 RMB/ton, down 1.05% from 65,855 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week, and down 6.95% year on year.

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of SunSirs, in the past three months, the copper price has risen for 6 weeks and fallen for 6 weeks. Recently, the copper price has slightly fallen back.

Analysis review

Macro: The latest interest rate minutes of the Federal Reserve emphasized the determination to fight against inflation, and increased the market's concern about the long-term recession expectation of the United States. The strong ADP performance of the United States in December indicated that the economy was still resilient, and pay attention to the US non farm employment data. On the domestic side, the recently released economic data was slightly lower than expected, but policies frequently boosted the market, especially the policy aspect was more inclined to stimulate the real estate market, and the market confidence was strong.

Supply side: there was constant interference at the mine side, but the supply was excessive, and the supply of scrap copper tended to loosen at the end of the year. It is estimated that the domestic electrolytic copper output in December will be 887,900 tons, a month on month decrease of 11,700 tons, a decrease of 1.30%, and a year-on-year increase of 2%. The entrance window remained closed.

Demand side: the orders of processing enterprises were flat, and the energy for downstream replenishment was insufficient. The traditional terminal demand was restrained, and the performance of emerging areas also declined marginally. Near the Spring Festival, trading and investment became more and more inactive, and downstream demand continued to show signs of weakening.

Market outlook

To sum up, the consumer side is facing the reality of seasonal weakening in the short term, which is reflected in the gradual entry of the inventory accumulation cycle during the Spring Festival. The support of the previous low inventory for prices has weakened. The copper price is expected to be weaker mainly in the short term.

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