According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as shown in the figure above, after the price of 180CST of fuel oil in China rose sharply in 2022, the overall trend of the period was volatile and fell sharply at the end of the year. According to the data of SunSirs, the mainstream of 180CST of domestic fuel oil in China was 5,240 RMB/ton on January 1, and the mainstream of the market was about 5,970 RMB/ton as of December 31, with an annual increase of 13.93%; Among them, the highest price in 2022 was about 6,760 RMB/ton on November 9, and the lowest price was 5,240 RMB/ton on January 1, with an annual maximum amplitude of 29.01%.
On December 31, the fuel oil commodity index was 120.91, unchanged from yesterday, 11.69% lower than the cycle's highest point of 136.91 (2022-11-17), and 162.39% higher than the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
In 2022, the oil price will show an inverted "V" trend, and the annual amplitude of WTI and Brent crude oil will exceed 80%. The oil market showed a strong trend at the beginning of the year. Later, with the support of geographical risk premium and consumption flexibility, Brent oil price rose to the highest point of 139 dollars/barrel in the year. The strong trend continued to the end of the second quarter. In the second half of the year, due to the negative macro situation, the economic recession depressed demand expectations, the "peak season" of oil product consumption was not strong, and the risk premium accelerated to fall back. Near the end of the year, the oil price basically returned to the level at the beginning of 2022. The oil market seeked to rebalance between low supply and weak demand. As of December 27, WTI crude oil price was 79.53 dollars/barrel, up 5.74% for the whole year; Brent crude oil price was 84.68 dollars/barrel, up 8.87% for the whole year.
In 2022, the main factors affecting the price change of the ship fuel market were crude oil, cost and demand. In 2023, the rise and fall of the ship fuel market will continue to be affected. In 2023, the international crude oil market will not only face macro pressure, the constraints of the economic downturn cycle, but also the game between the supply and demand sides. It is more likely that crude oil will maintain a wide range of shocks. The high price of marine raw materials and high cost price support the ship fuel market. Due to the epidemic situation and other factors, the terminal shipping demand of the ship fuel market in 2022 was general, the transaction was light, and the purchase was mainly just needed. In most cycles of 2023, the terminal shipping demand will still be weak. It is expected that the ship fuel market will remain high and volatile in 2023, but the price may be lower than that in 2022 as a whole.
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