According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. From January 3 to 6 (as of 15:00 p.m.), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 2,708 RMB/ton to 2,680 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price dropped by 1.05%, with a month on month increase of 0.31% and a year-on-year increase of 12.25%. Due to the strong crude oil during the New Year's Day and the demand for bottom buying before the festival, the market sentiment in the mainland returned after the festival was positive, and the price of gas buying support rose strongly. With the decline of crude oil and futures, the market price fell back synchronously in the second half of the week. The mainland sentiment returned to reason, the gas buying became weaker, and the methanol price fell back from a high level.
As of the closing of January 6, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2305 opened at 2,635 RMB/ton, the highest price was 2,640 RMB/ton, the lowest price was 2,595 RMB/ton, and it closed at 2,632 RMB/ton, up 4 or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,298,578 hands, the position volume was 1,157,579 hands, and the daily increase was 67,700 hands.
In terms of cost, near the end of the year, some of the coal mines in the main producing areas completed their annual production and began to reduce production or stop production. In addition to the winter safety inspection and market sales, the coal output fell back at the end of the year. With the steady promotion of the policy of increasing production and ensuring supply of coal, the demand side lacks substantial support at the end of the year, and the short-term coal price will remain stable and weak. The positive cost of methanol disappeared.
Demand side, downstream DME: the demand for DME increases with the restart of Henan heart to heart device; Downstream acetic acid: after New Year's Day, the load of Hualu Hengsheng unit will increase, and the demand for acetic acid may increase; Downstream formaldehyde: some units in Wen'an, Hebei, Liuyang, Henan, and Jining, Shandong are expected to stop, and some units in Kaifeng, Henan, Jining, Shandong, and Heze, Shandong are expected to reduce their load, so the demand for formaldehyde may decrease significantly. Methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, 200,000 t/a units of Xinjiang Zhongtai, 850,000 t/a units of Chongqing Cabelle and 500,000 t/a units of Sichuan Jiuyuan are planned to resume, and the supply is increasing. Methanol supply was negative.
In terms of external market, as of the closing of January 5, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 371.00-372.00 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton. The closing price of US Gulf methanol market is 101.75-102.75 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 305.00-306.00 euros/ton, down 5 euros/ton.
It is predicted that methanol cost will support or weaken, supply will be abundant and demand will decrease. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that China domestic methanol market may continue to be weak.
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