As of January 8, the average ex-factory price of domestic local refined hydrotreated naphtha was 7,376.50 RMB/ton, up 7.82% from 6,841.50 RMB/ton on January 2. The actual transaction price of local refined hydrotreated naphtha was about 7,300-7,500 RMB/ton.
As of January 8, the average ex-factory price of domestic straight-run naphtha was 7,266.50 RMB/ton, up 6.64% from 6,814.00 RMB/ton on January 2, and the actual transaction price of local straight-run naphtha was around 7,200-7,400 RMB/ton.
The naphtha commodity index on January 8 was 91.04, which was the same as yesterday, down 25.16% from the cycle's highest point of 121.64 (2022-03-10), and up 115.53% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)
The price of local refining naphtha rose last week, and the shipment was positive. A small amount of terminal ethylene just needed replenishment, and the local refining and reforming just needed replenishment. The gasoline market rose, and the local refining naphtha price rose sharply.
Upstream: The international crude oil price is down, the economic recession is expected to remain unchanged, and the Federal Reserve's tightening policy is likely to continue. The continued tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy increases the risk that the United States and major developed economies in the world will fall into recession, which will then depress fuel demand, and the oil price will be under pressure. The winter snowstorm weather in the United States is still fermenting, leading to the frustration of the local aviation industry. The cancellation of large-scale flights has caused serious damage to the aviation coal market, but also has a negative impact on self-driving travel, and the demand for gasoline has been depressed; In addition, the snowstorms in many places reduced the crude oil processing capacity of North America, resulting in the accumulation of crude oil, and then suppressed the oil price. In addition, the risk of the global economy falling into recession in 2023 is increasing, and the inflation level of the western developed economies is high, and it is difficult to tighten monetary policy or exit in the short term, which will harm the global economy, and the negative impact on the decline of crude oil price.
Downstream: According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of toluene rose first and then stabilized. The price was 6,110 RMB/ton on December 30 and 6,290 RMB/ton on January 6, up 2.95%. Last week, the price of mixed xylene rose slightly and tended to be stable. The price was 6,710 RMB/ton on December 30 and 6,790 RMB/ton on January 6, up 1.19%. In the PX market, the price trend rose last week. As of the end of the week, the ex-factory price of domestic paraxylene was 8,000 RMB/ton, up 7.38% from the price of 7,450 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week.
According to the energy analysts of SunSirs, the international crude oil fell last week, and the cost support of local refining naphtha was limited, but a small amount of terminal ethylene just needed replenishment before the festival, the local refining and reforming just needed replenishment, the gasoline market rose, the local refining naphtha price rose, and the shipment was positive. It is expected that naphtha refining in the near future will continue to rise in China.
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