Price trend

After the New Year's Day, the domestic MIBK market continued to rise. As of January 9, the negotiated price of the market rose to 17,500-17,800 RMB/ton, and it was heard that the transaction of retail orders in the market reached 18,600 RMB/ton. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the national average price of MIBK was 14,766 RMB/ton on January 2, and rose to 17,533 RMB/ton on January 9, with a wide increase of 18.7%.

Analysis review

From the perspective of supply, as of January 9, the operating rate of MIBK industry was 40%, and the continuous rise of MIBK market was mainly supported by the supply side tension. After the shutdown of the large factory, the market expected the spot circulation to be tightened, and the commodity holders had a positive attitude. They had high expectations for the future, and the mood of driving up the price was not reduced. The quotation was high, and the small order bulk cargo in the market reached 18,600 RMB/ton. It is expected that the tight supply situation in January will continue, and MIBK will have no intention to concede profits.

From the perspective of demand, there were few large downstream orders to negotiate, the procurement was just small orders in needed, and the participation of middlemen has also increased. Near the end of the year, downstream factories had orders to purchase raw materials. In addition to the increase in logistics costs, the arrival prices were high everywhere. It is expected that the short-term supply is tight, and it is difficult to have the intention to make profits. It is expected that many downstream factories will follow up with small orders just on demand before the festival.

From the perspective of cost, raw acetone continued to fall broadly. Although acetone in East China rose slightly by 50 RMB/ton on the 8th, and the East China market was negotiated at 4,650 RMB/ton, the overall impact on its downstream was small. The cost of MIBK plant was low, and the profit space of MIBK was good. Although the downstream MIBK market continued to rise, the low industrial operating rate had little demand for raw acetone. At present, the correlation between acetone and downstream MIBK is low, and the low cost makes MIBK profitable.

Market outlook

From the perspective of SunSirs, the short term market supply tension will continue to affect the MIBK market and support the market to continue to maintain the price position. However, the downstream price pursuit sentiment is limited, the large orders are rare, and after the small orders followed- up just on demand, the purchase intention is weakened, and there is resistance to the high price level. SunSirs expects that the rise of MIBK will be limited in the future, and pays attention to the purchase situation before the holiday.

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