In 2022, the price of domestic refined oil market rose sharply and fell sharply. The price of gasoline at the beginning of the year was 7.637 RMB/ton, and the price at the end of the year was 7.477.6 RMB/ton, with a slight decline of 2.09% throughout the year; The price of diesel oil at the beginning of the year was 7.052.6 RMB/ton, and the price at the end of the year was 7.180.2 RMB/ton, with an annual increase of 1.81%. From the perspective of the whole year, the price changes little, but the average price of refined oil in 2022 is higher.
In 2022, the price of refined oil rose and fell by half. In the first half of the year, the price rose in many months, and in the second half, the price fell mainly. According to the trend of the whole year, the market price of refined oil showed a "M" trend, which can be divided into four stages. The first stage was that the price of refined oil rises sharply in the middle of January to March; In the second stage, from late March to July, the price of refined oil market fluctuated and fell; In the third stage, the market of refined oil rose in August and November; The fourth stage was the decline in the price of refined oil from November to the end of the year.
The price trend of domestic refined oil was affected by the change of crude oil, and the international oil price was one of the important factors that affect the price of domestic refined oil.
In 2022, the retail price of domestic refined oil will be increased for 13 times, including 3,795 RMB/ton for gasoline and 3,660 RMB/ton for diesel; The retail price of gasoline was reduced by 3,245 RMB/ton and the retail price of diesel was reduced by 3,130 RMB/ton for ten times throughout the year; There was another grounding. In general, the retail price of gasoline will increase by 550 RMB/ton in 2022, and the retail price of diesel will increase by 530 RMB/ton. In 2022, the overall domestic refined oil price will increase mainly.
In 2022, gasoline production will not change much, while diesel production will increase significantly. The overall operation of domestic refining and chemical industry maintained about 72%, and the domestic supply was relatively stable. In 2022, the export of diesel oil will increase significantly, the export demand will drive domestic production, and the output of diesel oil will increase in 2022.
Prospect of domestic refined oil market in 2023:
Cost side: the oil market faces both macro pressure and economic recession cycle constraints. It also faces the game between supply and demand. On the supply side, there are risks of Russian production decline and OEPC+ production reduction to support the bottom. The demand side was suppressed by the macro cycle, depressed by the sluggish supply and demand, and supported by the growth of Asian demand. The oil market was affected by macro and micro long and short, so it was more likely to maintain broad volatility. The international oil price as a whole was still in the era of high oil prices, which forms a strong cost support for the domestic refined oil market.
Supply and demand: China's refined oil supply will still maintain a steady upward trend. However, the growth of gasoline and diesel demand was slowing down, and the new energy belt effect was steadily increasing. In the future, the refined oil market will transform into a pattern of oversupply. In 2023, the first batch of export quotas for refined oil will reach nearly 19 million tons, an increase of 46% over the same period in 2022. The export quotas for refined oil will increase significantly. In 2023, the domestic oil market will resume the "big import and big export" mode. In general, the price of domestic refined oil market was mixed with positive and negative factors. At the beginning of 2023, the price of domestic gasoline rose sharply, while the increase of diesel market was limited. The domestic retail price fluctuated with the international oil price. On the whole, China domestic refined oil market followed the broad fluctuation of crude oil in 2023, and the overall price may be similar to that in 2022.
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