According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the natural rubber and natural rubber market in 2022 is worse than that in previous years, and the downward trend is obvious. The trend of the mainstream market of the domestic standard 1 East China market is in the reverse "√" shape, and the annual overall downward trend is 10.9%. The natural rubber starts to fluctuate from 13,748 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year, first breaks through the 14,000 RMB/ton mark slightly upward, and reaches the annual peak price of 14,020 RMB/ton on January 12, 2022; Then it continued the downward trend of repeated shocks for 10 months, until the end of October fell to the annual low of 11,170 RMB/ton, which was close to 11,000 RMB/ton, and then the shocks rebounded up 4.94% from the beginning of November, reaching the stage rebound high of 12,420 RMB/ton on December 9, and then retreated until 12,250 RMB/ton on December 31. Overall, the maximum amplitude of domestic standard price of natural rubber in 2022 is 20.33%.

In 2022, the oil price showed an inverted "V" trend, and the annual amplitude of WTI and Brent crude oil exceeded 80%. The oil market showed a strong trend at the beginning of the year, and the Brent oil price rose to the highest point of 139 dollars/barrel in the whole year under the influence of geopolitical risk premium and consumer resilience. The strong trend continued until the end of the second quarter. In the second half of the year, due to the negative macro outlook, the economic recession depressed demand expectations, and the "peak season" of oil product consumption, the risk premium accelerated to fall. Near the end of the year, the oil price basically returned to the level before the war between Ukraine and Russia. The oil market seeks to rebalance between low supply and weak demand. As of December 27, the price of WTI crude oil was 79.53 dollars per barrel, up 5.74% for the whole year; Brent crude oil price was 84.68 dollars per barrel, up 8.87% for the whole year.

From the perspective of industry, the cutting of domestic latex has been gradually stopped at the end of the year, and the expected positive effect of production reduction has gradually emerged. In addition, the price of domestic latex is relatively firm driven by the stock preparation before the year; However, the Southeast Asian production areas were still in the peak season of new rubber production before the New Year's Day. Affected by the cut of domestic areas in China, the price of latex in Thailand and Vietnam increased by more than 1000 RMB compared with the previous month, and the export volume continued to increase. The social inventory accumulated rapidly, and the price shock corrected. From the perspective of demand, the downstream tire enterprises resumed operation after the end of the maintenance cycle. The operating rate of the tire enterprises was about 60%. The inventory pressure of the finished tire products was still high. The domestic and overseas demand was low, and the tire export continued to grow negative year on year for many months. The expectation of economic downturn and the nationwide immunization after the policy of public health events was released at the end of the year, the infection was rapid, and the production of enterprises was affected. In addition, with the arrival of New Year's Day and Spring Festival holidays, some employees of many enterprises went to work or had holidays in advance, the order quantity of natural rubber dropped sharply, and the market situation gradually stabilized. On the other hand, after the policy liberalization, several provinces have taken the lead in seizing overseas orders. It is preliminarily expected that the cooperation at home and abroad will be promoted rapidly next year, and the overseas demand will be significantly improved.

Compared with previous years, the natural rubber market in 2022 is lower than that in previous years. From the perspective of seasonality, the price of latex has been on the upward trend since last month due to the domestic cut off, the foreign normal production, the supply side reduction and the stock preparation before the Spring Festival. After the stock preparation before the holiday was basically completed, the national immunization policy was released, the number of people returning to work was limited due to infection, and the Spring Festival holiday was imminent, and the product manufacturers began to reduce. As for the aftermarket, the market is mainly flat in the short term. After the year, with Vietnam and Thailand reducing production or even cutting, the supply side is at the lowest level of the year. After the Spring Festival, downstream product factories resume production. The demand will start in the new year, and the market will continue to be strong.

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