Price trend

In 2023, the propane market in Shandong Province has stopped falling and rebounded, with a strong rise. Its rise was strong, with a long rise cycle, and an average daily increase of 150-200 RMB/ton. According to the data monitoring statistics of SunSirs, the average market price of Shandong propane was 5,082 RMB/ton on January 1 and 6,000 RMB/ton on January 11, up 18.05% from the lowest point at the beginning of the year.

Analysis review

This round of price increase in the Shandong propane market was mainly boosted by two positive factors. On the one hand, the price in the northern market was low in the early stage, the demand was relatively weak, the downstream procurement was stable, the enterprise was effectively destocked, the downstream started to replenish after the festival, the demand was significantly increased, and the upstream inventory was low. At the same time, the recent port arrival volume was low, the market supply was reduced, and the propane price started to rise strongly. On the other hand, the resumption of some PDH and the demand for chemical industry had increased significantly. With the support of the rigid demand, the price of propane was easy to rise but difficult to fall.

This round of price rise was strong in the north and weak in the south. In the early stage, the low-end sources of goods in the northern market were sold for arbitrage, effectively reducing inventory. The prices in the southern market were gradually adjusted due to high prices, and the goods were not shipped smoothly. As the Spring Festival approaches after the holiday, some factories entered the holiday mode, and migrant workers returned home, resulting in the relatively cautious propane market in the south and obvious willingness to de-stock, and the trend of the markets in the north and south was different.

Market outlook

On the whole, the price of propane in Shandong had risen to a stage high, and the price had been significantly higher than that in the southern market. Considering that the Spring Festival is approaching and the phased replenishment is approaching the end, it is expected that the Shandong propane market will maintain stability at high levels in the short term, and the low propane market will mainly increase. Supported by the high prices in the north, the southern propane market will have limited space to continue to fall, and will operate smoothly.

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