According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of eggs (brown shells) at the beginning of 2022 was 9.23 RMB/kg, and the average price of eggs (brown shells) at the end of 2022 was 9.15 RMB/kg, with a decrease of 0.87%. The highest price of eggs (brown shell) will be 8.51/kg in 2020, 10.64/kg in 2021 and 12.52/kg in 2022.
In 2022, the price of eggs in the whole year will mainly fluctuate, and the price will begin to fall back in November. According to the chart of the rise and fall in 2022, the largest increase in the year was in April, with an increase of 16.38%. The largest drop in the year was in December, with a drop of 19.60%.
Analysis of important factors affecting egg price - low supply and high cost support high egg price
In 2022, affected by the rise of corn and soybean meal prices, the feed cost rose to a historical high. As of December 29, the average cost of egg feed per catty in the year was 3.75 RMB, up 6.84% year on year. The high feed cost stimulates the breeding units to be reluctant to sell at low prices, which makes the egg price easy to rise but difficult to fall, thus forming a strong bottom support for the egg price, but at the same time, it also suppresses the demand of breeding units to supplement the fence. The average inventory in 2022 decreased 0.51% year-on-year, 5.26% lower than the average in the past five years. The stock of laying hens remained low, resulting in tight egg supply during the year, supporting the long-term high egg price during the year
Changes in demand affect seasonal fluctuations of egg prices within the year
In 2022, the phenomenon that egg prices are not weak in the off-season and not strong in the peak season is mainly affected by changes in demand. The strong rise in egg prices in March, April and October was due to the poor circulation of the market. The end consumers and downstream wholesalers were more active in stocking, resulting in the rise in egg prices. The sales volume of eggs in the representative sales areas increased by 31.92%, 6.24% and 4.16% month-on-month in March, April and October respectively. As the egg price has been at a high level for a long time, the terminal consumption has been restrained to a certain extent, and the food factory's stock preparation before the Mid-Autumn Festival is less than that of previous years, resulting in a slightly flat demand season in September. The sales volume of eggs in the domestic market fell by 0.55% month-on-month, and the overall increase of egg price was lower than that of previous years. In 2022, the total sales volume of eggs in the national representative markets was 369622.3 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.11%.
Cost support: corn and soybean meal prices are expected to fall in 2023, so it is expected that the cost of a single kilogram of egg feed will fall slightly, but the cost decline is limited, and will continue to be at a high level, which will support the egg price.
The supply increased slightly: according to the current supplementary data and the stock base in December, it is estimated that the theoretical stock of laying hens in the first quarter of 2023 will be between 1.174 billion and 1.88 billion, which will remain at the low level in recent years. At the end of December, the average vacancy rate in the national production areas was 12.10%, which was on the high side, indicating that the demand for chicken seedlings in the later stage was still large. However, due to the limited reduction in feed costs, the enthusiasm of breeding units to supplement the stock was difficult to significantly improve. It is expected that the stock of laying hens will increase slightly in 2023.
Demand improvement: With the resumption of market circulation, the normal resumption of factory work and the increase of floating population, the catering and tourism industries will gradually return to normal, which will stimulate egg consumption. Therefore, the demand for eggs will gradually improve in 2023, forming a positive support for the market.
To sum up, the feed cost in 2023 may still be at a high level, and the enthusiasm of breeding units to supplement the stock is difficult to be significantly improved. The increase in the stock of laying hens is limited, and the supply of eggs may still remain tight. In addition, the market demand will gradually recover, and both supply and demand will have positive support. It is estimated that the egg price will still have room for improvement in 2023.
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