Price trend

This week, the spot tin market price (1.6-1.13) fluctuated downward. The average price in the domestic market was 202,360 RMB/ton at the end of last week and 220,660 RMB/ton at the end of this week, up 9.04% this week.

It can be seen from the monitoring data of SunSirs that tin prices have risen continuously after November 2022 due to the influence of macro factors.

Analysis review

The non-ferrous index stood at 1,204 points on January 14, unchanged from the previous day, down 21.72% from the highest point of 1,538 points in the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 98.35% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the second week of 2023 (1.9-1.13), there were 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose on a month-on-month basis, including 1 commodity that rose more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were tin (7.06%), copper (3.72%) and aluminum (3.41%). There were seven commodities that fell on a month-on-month basis, with cobalt (- 2.50%), dysprosium oxide (- 1.80%) and lead (- 1.68%) among the top three products. The average rise and fall of this week was 0.39%.

This week, the futures market of Shanghai tin rose sharply in the week, with an increase of 7.46%. However, the recent continuous rise of tin prices was mainly boosted by the expected positive macroeconomic factors and the market's risk aversion mentality, which affected the performance of funds on the market.

In the spot market, affected by the futures market, tin prices rose this week. Basically, although the production of tin mines in Peru was suspended and the market was expected to cause supply tension, the impact was limited as of the 13th.

The root cause of this round of rise was still the expected improvement of downstream demand. Recently, the electronic consumption industry had gradually warmed up. The market expects that the overall demand for tin will rise to some extent in 2023, boosting the market mentality.

Market outlook

As the holiday approaches, the upstream smelter started at a low level, and the market supply was slightly tight. The stock preparation before the holiday has ended, and the subsequent market performance needs to wait until the market is clear after the holiday.

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