Price trend of polyester staple fiber in 2022
In 2022, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber showed an inverted V-shaped trend of rising first and then declining. In the first half of the year, the price fluctuated and rose, while in the second half, it fluctuated and declined. At the end of the year, the price rose slightly, and the manufacturer's quotation at the end of the year was mainly stable. The trend of spot and futures was similar. It was similar to the trend of crude oil and PTA spot and futures markets throughout the year. According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 7,302 RMB/ton on December 31, up 3.18% year on year. The highest price was 9,293 RMB/ton in mid-June, the lowest was 7,076 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year, and the second lowest was 7,132 RMB/ton in mid-December. In the futures market, the main polyester staple fiber futures closed at 7,232 RMB/ton on December 31, up 2.29% year on year. The highest price was 9,168 RMB/ton in mid-June, and the lowest price was 6,452 RMB/ton on December 7.
2023 forecast
Analysts from the SunSirs believe that many sets of polyester staple fiber plants were restarted around the New Year's Day, and the start of construction was relatively high. The downstream cotton mills and weaving mills had an early holiday under the conditions of sluggish terminal demand and the shortage of labor at the peak of the epidemic, and the start of construction fell sharply, reducing the demand for staple fiber. The recent sharp drop in oil prices dragged down the price of polyester staple fiber raw materials, and the cost support of polyester staple fiber weakened. In the short term, the polyester staple fiber is expected to be weak and volatile.
To sum up:
On the supply side, the production capacity of staple fiber will continue to expand in 2023, and the supply pressure for the whole year will remain high. About 1.7 million tons of polyester staple fiber will be put into production in 2023, including 1 million tons in the first half of the year and 700,000 tons in the second half of the year.
In terms of demand, the overall demand for staple fiber in 2023 may be dominated by weak repair. In 2023, the domestic epidemic prevention and control will be optimized, the macro policy will be ambiguous, the economy will be in the recovery period, and the demand for terminal textile and clothing will gradually rise from a low level, but the impact of the epidemic is still uncertain. Internationally, under the pressure of high inflation and the expectation of economic recession in many countries, the demand for textile and clothing continues to be weak, and the export of polyester staple fiber still has downward pressure.
In terms of cost, the focus of staple fiber cost may fluctuate widely. In 2023, the crude oil market will face not only macroeconomic pressure and economic recession cycle constraints, but also the game between supply and demand. On the supply side, there are risks of Russian production decline and OEPC+ production reduction to support the bottom. The demand side is suppressed by the macro cycle, depressed by the sluggish supply and demand, and supported by the growth of Asian demand. The oil market is affected by macro and micro bullishness, so it is more likely to maintain broad volatility. The domestic PTA supply increment is expected to be large, the supply exceeds the demand, the accumulated pressure increases, and the ethylene glycol supply increment is still greater than the demand increment, and the PTA and ethylene glycol prices may fluctuate to be weaker throughout the year.
In the whole year, under the expectation of increasing supply pressure, uncertain demand recovery and lower cost center, it is expected that the staple fiber in 2023 will rise first and then fall, and the price will fluctuate between 6,000 RMB/ton and 8,000 RMB/ton. Among them, the price of polyester staple fiber in January, February and September and October may rise in volume and price. The change of raw material price and the release of new production capacity may dominate the price trend of staple fiber. In addition, the epidemic situation, Russian-Uzbekistan conflict, demand and macro policy also need close attention.
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