Review of polyester staple fiber market in 2022

In the first quarter, the polyester staple fiber rose sharply in shock, with a surge of 12.23%.

In the first quarter, the price of international crude oil hit a 14-year high due to the geopolitical tension in Russia and Ukraine, and the highest price of 130.50 US dollars per barrel in the US oil market. The sharp rise in oil prices led to a sharp rise in the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol, the raw materials of polyester staple fiber. The price of staple fiber rose sharply driven by cost. In terms of supply, due to repeated domestic epidemic and poor logistics, the load at the supply end of staple fiber decreased more than that at the demand end.

In the second quarter, polyester staple fiber continued to rise sharply, rising 11.74% in the quarter.

This quarter, the international crude oil price continued to be subject to the continuous tightening of the supply of crude oil due to the Russian-Uzbekistan conflict, the sanctions imposed by the European Union on Russian oil products, the arrival of the summer demand peak in Europe and the United States, and the easing of epidemic control in Asia, these factors affected the volatility and rise, with the monthly and quarterly closing prices hitting the highest level in the year. The supply of PX in Asia was tight, and the price of PX was rising rapidly and sharply. Cost drove PTA and glycol prices to continue to rise. The price of staple fiber also rose sharply with the upstream. However, in the middle and late June, with the temperature rising and the industry off-season coming, the downstream operating rate gradually declined, the demand and foreign trade weakened, the price of staple fiber began to fall, the number of staple fiber maintenance also began to increase, and the supply in some regions was tight.

In the third quarter, staple fiber showed a trend of first suppression and then rise, with a quarterly decline of 10.20%.

July and August almost showed a unilateral downward trend, and rose slightly in September. The increase of interest rate by the Federal Reserve had increased the risk of economic recession, and the blockade measures that might be brought about by the repeated global epidemic and the important progress in the negotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement were expected to put pressure on the outlook of crude oil demand. The international crude oil price had weakened in July and August. The fall in oil prices dragged down the price of PTA and ethylene glycol in the upstream of staple fiber. In the off-season of the hot weather industry, the downstream operating rate was at a low level, the demand and foreign trade were weakening, and the price of staple fiber fell continuously in July and August. However, in September, the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase eased the oil price rebound. In September, the polyester staple fiber device was overhauled more frequently, the supply contracted, and the inventory pressure was low. Downstream also entered the traditional peak season of the year. Some cities had relaxed power restrictions, and the operating load of cotton mills and textile mills increased, and the demand improved. Affected by typhoon weather and epidemic prevention and control in September, logistics and transportation were blocked in the short term, and the supply of goods available for circulation was tight. The spot price of staple fiber rebounded in September, and the trend was stronger than that of futures.

In the fourth quarter, the staple fiber showed a fluctuating decline trend, stabilized at the end of the year and recovered slightly, with a quarterly decline of 7.88%.

Although OPEC+ cut production more than expected in the early part of this quarter, OPEC+ again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022 in the later part of this quarter. In addition to the strong certainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase expectation, the crude oil price continued to fall, reaching the lowest point in the year. However, from the middle of December, the US dollar continued to fall and short-term supply tension concerns overshadowed the pessimistic expectations of demand, and the oil market rebounded. With the resumption of production of PTA, the load increased significantly, the supply increased, and the new device was also close to launch. Some ethylene glycol units were restarted, the supply picked up, and the port inventory accumulated slightly. The textile terminal orders were weak, the operation rate of the yarn mill was not high, and the inventory was high, which suppressed the demand for staple fiber. The polyester staple fiber plant was restarted, and the start of construction was recovered. The inventory of manufacturers continued to increase, the production and sales continued to decline, and the price fell. However, in the middle and late December, the domestic macro policy became warmer, the epidemic control measures were optimized and adjusted, the price of raw materials rose, the load of terminal factories rose, and the demand also improved in stages. Some major short fiber factories reduced production, and the price of short fiber rebounded slightly at the end of the year.

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