Price trend of MDI in 2022

In 2022, the domestic MDI market experienced "three rises and three falls". The rise was not large, but the decline was obvious, and the overall price fell. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of domestic MDI in the East China market dropped from 20,180 RMB/ton on January 1 to 15,240 RMB/ton on December 31, with an overall decline of 24.48% throughout the year. The highest price appeared in the middle of the first quarter at 21,600 RMB/ton on February 15, and the lowest price appeared at 14,350 RMB/ton on November 8, with the annual maximum amplitude of 33.56%.

Analysis review

Upstream and downstream in the polymerization MDI industry chain, the main factors affecting the market on the cost side were pure benzene and aniline, most of which were short-term market impacts. The impact of the demand side came from downstream industries, such as polyurethane, ice industry, adhesives, cold storage boards, spraying, pipes, automobiles, OCF, coal mine reinforcement, refrigerated containers, etc. There were different production seasons in different downstream, most of which were seasonal impacts. However, the main factor that affected the MDI market in the long term was the supply. In terms of supply, the monthly guidance price rise and fall as well as the supply volume provided by the main manufacturers had become the main wind vane, and the supplement of import sources was also an important factor that affected the domestic MDI market.

In 2022, the total output of domestic polymerized MDI reached 1.9 million tons, the operating rate of production enterprises was maintained at 6-80%, and the output was generally maintained at 15-20 tons. However, the production enterprises control the external supply for a long time, so once the news of equipment maintenance and agent change of some enterprises occurs, the supply side will be favorable, and traders will use this to push up the market price. At the same time, the increase of export orders or the decrease of import sources are also important factors to stimulate the domestic MDI market.

Market outlook

In the short term, as the Spring Festival approaches and the downstream markets enter the holiday, it is difficult to make a major breakthrough in the MDI market. After the Spring Festival holiday, the first quarter ushered in the peak season of downstream construction. The analyst of SunSirs MDI predicted that the domestic MDI market is expected to rise in a narrow range.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com