Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week, and the urea price rose from 2,745.00 RMB/ton at the end of last week to 2,746.00 RMB/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.04%, and up 4.25% year-on-year.

The urea commodity index on January 27 was 127.72, which was the same as the previous day, down 16.16% from the cycle's highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and up 129.71% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support increased, downstream demand was average and urea supply was tight

From the manufacturer's quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea rose this week. Zhangzhou San'an’s urea was quoted at 2,950 RMB/ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the last weekend; Shandong Ruixing’s urea was quoted at 2,720 RMB/ton at the end of this week, up 10 RMB/ton from last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng’s urea was quoted at 2,710 RMB/ton at the end of this week, down 5 RMB/ton compared with last weekend.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream market rose and fell this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell sharply, from 6,116.00 RMB/ton at the end of last week to 5,374.00 RMB/ton at the end of this week, down 12.13%, and up 19.87% year on year; the price of anthracite was high, and the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium lump) was 1,920 RMB/ton; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4,190 RMB/ton at the end of last week to 4,223.33 RMB/ton at the end of this week, up 0.80%, and down 4.95% year on year. Upstream raw materials rose and fell with each other, and the support for the price of urea was general. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was low and consolidated, and the price was 8,233.33 RMB/ton.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand was normal. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plant was average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was average. The operating rate of plate and melamine enterprises was average, and they mainly purchased just in needed. From the perspective of supply: some units in Shanxi had started to resume production, and some gas head enterprises had stopped for maintenance. The daily output of urea was about 150,000 tons.

Market outlook

The domestic urea market may fluctuate and rise slightly in the middle and early February. According to the urea analyst of SunSirs, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea rose and fell with each other, and the cost support of urea was well. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly, and industrial demand was normal. Some gas head enterprises were shut down for maintenance, and the daily output of urea was about 150,000 tons. In the future, urea rose mainly in shock in a narrow range.

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