Price trend

After the Spring Festival holiday, the steel market strengthened, and the steel price continued to rise, welcoming a good start. The domestic steel market rose actively, and the short-term steel price may continue to rise.

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of January 29, the average market price of rebar was 4,074.44 RMB/ton; The average market price of hot rolled coil was 4,314 RMB/ton; The average market price of cold rolled sheet was 4,610 RMB/ton; The average market price of galvanized sheet was 5,016.67 RMB/ton; The average market price of mild steel plate was 4,124 RMB/ton.

Positive factors:

Stable economic growth and optimistic market

Presided over the executive meeting of the State Council on the 28th. The meeting pointed out that the current economy continues to recover and shows a rebound trend. We should implement the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, strive to stabilize growth, employment and prices, and maintain the economic operation in a reasonable range. We will work together to consolidate and expand the momentum of economic recovery. The strong expectation at the macro level is still continuing and is expected to drive the end demand for steel.

The performance of raw material price was relatively strong

Billet prices rose sharply, boosting market confidence. According to the quotation on the 30th, some steel plants in Tangshan were priced at 3,870 RMB/ton, and Lulong was priced at 3,870 RMB/ton, with tax included, leaving the factory, and traders were priced at 3,960 RMB/ton, with an increase of 70 RMB/ton or 1.84% compared with that before the holiday.

The price of iron ore has been rising since November. Although the National Development and Reform Commission and other regulatory departments have "struck iron" three times, the current price of iron ore is still crazy. The price of iron ore on the 30th was 893.89 yuan/wet ton. The cost pressure of steel mills was high, and the ex-factory price was increased.

The price of coke remained stable during the Spring Festival, and the price of quasi-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2,682 RMB/ton. Coking enterprises started relatively smoothly, basically at the same level as before the Spring Festival, and steel mills maintained on-demand procurement. Under the influence of high costs, steel mills stopped production for more maintenance, and the output continued to decline, which was good for steel prices.

Low steel output

From the perspective of supply, steel plants still have more parking and maintenance, steel production is low, and market supply pressure is low. The supply of large steel varieties on Friday was 8.58 million tons, with an increase of 69,000 tons, but the increase was limited.

Market outlook

In general, the steel market is still in a situation of "strong expectations, high costs and low output", and the steel price will still rise mainly in the short term.

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