Price trend
According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the prices of the materials and rebar were mainly stable with slight adjustment before the Spring Festival in January, and the prices rose slightly after the festival. By the end of the month, the average price of HRB400 rebar in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was 4,121.11 RMB/ton, up 1.73% from the beginning of the month; the average price of HPB300 in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was 4,420 RMB/ton, up 2.13% from the beginning of the month.
Factors affecting the price
In January, the weekly production of wire rod and rebar decreased, and the total inventory increased.
Market: From January to November, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8968.57 million square meters, down 6.5% year on year. Among them, the residential construction area was 633.916 million square meters, down 6.7%. The newly constructed area of houses was 1116.32 million square meters, down 38.9%. Among them, the newly-started residential area was 817.34 million square meters, down 39.5%. The completed area of houses was 557.09 million square meters, down 19.0%. Among them, the completed residential area was 404.42 million square meters, down 18.4%.
In terms of supply and demand: in the upstream, the coke market rose and fell, and the mainstream was temporarily stable; The price of iron ore in the port fluctuated and increased; The scrap market was stable and strong; The profit of blast furnace, which affected the profit of steel plant, was 90 RMB/ton, increased by 4 RMB/ton; The profit of electric furnace was 80 RMB/ton, increased by 20 RMB/ton. After the Spring Festival, most traders have been operating, but the terminal demand has not yet been fully started, and the overall transaction performance is very few, only the intermediary transactions have improved slightly. Since the downstream construction sites will not be started until after the Lantern Festival, the current market is in a state of no trading volume but price rise.
Market outlook
To sum up, the bullish sentiment in the market is generally high, guided by the "good start" mentality. At the same time, driven by the strong rise of steel mills, the cost support is strong, and spot prices around the country are rising. However, in view of the fact that downstream demand has not yet started, there is no actual transaction in the market. It is expected that the price of wire rod and rebar will remain strong in the short term.
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