441# silicon price trend

The market price of silicon metal remained low in January. As of the 31st, the national silicon metal quotation was 18,350 RMB/ton, down 3.62% from the beginning of the month. Before the Spring Festival, the upstream and downstream transactions in the silicon market were weak, and the market had a strong expectation of post-holiday demand recovery. However, from the current point of view, the post-holiday transaction has not been significantly released, and the price on the day of return to the market continued to fall by 100-150 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

Supply side

It is understood that as of January 20, the silicon metal opening rate was about 42.88%, and the number of opening furnaces was 304, down 9 from last week, including 139 in Xinjiang, 28 in Sichuan and 53 in Yunnan. Yunnan and Sichuan had different levels of production restriction, and the boiler was shut down during the Spring Festival holiday to reduce production; Xinjiang maintained production. On the whole, the output of silicon metal remained high year on year.

Inventory

As of January 27, the total inventory of silicon metal in the three places was 125,000 tons, up 2,000 tons from the year before. During the Spring Festival, the market was closed, the pressure of logistics and transportation circulation was high, and the overall social inventory showed an upward trend.

Export

According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, the export volume of silicon metal in December 2022 was 48,400 tons, down 2% month-on-month and down 23% year-on-year. In 2022, the total export volume will be 651,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16%. In December, the domestic silicon metal export continued to be negative, and the shipment was sluggish, and the FOB price of industrial silicon remained stable after the holiday.

Market outlook

The recovery of downstream demand is not obvious, and the upstream supply is loose. In the short term, domestic silicon metal maintains a weak and stable operation.

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