Price trend
In January, the market of BR rose sharply. According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the price of BR was 11,800 RMB/ton as of January 31, up 11.53% from the price of 10,580 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.
In the early and middle of January, as the Spring Festival approached, the downstream construction started to decline gradually, and the demand for BR was light, but the price of raw materials was higher, and the price of BR rose slightly under the support of cost. After the Spring Festival, the cost of BR continued to rise, the downstream inquiries increased, and the post-holiday bullish atmosphere increased, so the BR manufacturers significantly increased the factory price. As of January 31, the ex-factory price of Qilu BR of PetroChina Northeast Sales Branch was 11,500 RMB/ton, an increase of 1,000 RMB/ton compared with that before the holiday, and the market offer rose sharply.
Analysis review
Supply side: Shandong Wanda 50,000 t/a BR plant was shut down for maintenance on January 6; Shengyu Chemical's 80,000 t/a BR plant was shut down for maintenance in the middle of January, and was scheduled to be overhauled for 30 days; The supply of BR declined slightly in January.
Cost: the price of butadiene rose sharply in January, while the cost of BR rose. As of January 31, the price of butadiene was 9,020 RMB/ton, up 24.56% from the price of 7,241 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.
The natural rubber market rose slightly in January, which still supported BR. However, with the rising price of BR, the substitution advantage of BR is gradually not obvious, and the support of natural rubber for BR would weaken. As of January 31, the price was 12,590 RMB/ton, up 2.78% from 12,250 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.
Demand side: in the first and middle of January, due to the impact of the approaching Spring Festival and the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rate of downstream tire enterprises decreased significantly, and the demand for BR was depressed, which restrained the rise of BR; After the festival, with the end of the downstream holiday, the start of construction rose slightly, and the number of downstream inquiries increased, which supported the BR.
Market outlook
Analysts from SunSirs believe that, on the one hand, the increase in downstream inquiries and higher costs after the holiday have driven the price of BR up sharply. On the other hand, although the supply of BR has declined slightly in the short term, the overall supply pressure is still there, and whether the demand can be further improved remains to be seen; It is expected that the BR market will maintain a narrow fluctuation in the short term after this round of rise, and if the supply and demand side is weak in the later period, the price may fall again.
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