In 2019, the vegetable oil formed well in agricultural product sector. Driven by palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil ushered in a surge. All of those three completely got rid of two-year slump, rebounded and showed the same pattern as 2016 rally.
Among the vegetable oil sector, the highest increase was palm oil, with an average price exceeding 6,000 yuan and a price increase of more than 2,000 yuan, which is an increase of more than 50%. Followed by soybean oil, its average price exceeded 6,300 yuan, an increase of more than 30%. Finally, rapeseed oil, with an average price of 8,000 yuan, rose nearly 30%.
2019 is the year of vegetable oil outbreak, and vegetable oil returns to the peak of 2016.
As per SunSirs, three major vegetable oils, palm oil and soybean oil, are in line with the rising trend.
Rapeseed oil is strongly influenced by its own raw material, rapeseed, throughout the year.
Therefore, we summarize palm oil and soybean oil together, and analyze rapeseed oil separately.
In 2019, led by palm oil, soybean oil followed its pace and staged a rising trend.
The trends of palm oil and soybean oil remain highly consistent, both of which are weak in the first half of the year, with small fluctuations.
Then the market in the second half has a sudden rise. Up to December 24, palm oil rose 50.19% year-on-year, and soybean oil rose 31.27%.
The First Stage (January to June): Palm oil and soybean oil performed quite fairly in the first half of the year. The market was rather steadily.
Palm oil fluctuated within a narrow range, and rose slightly overall, an increase of 2.01%.
Soybean oil rose slightly and fell mainly, and the overall price fell weakly. Soybean fell slightly by 0.26%.
Palm oil:
In January-February: The Spring Festival stock market pulls up coupled with the external market horse palm oil futures prices continue to rise.
Supported by bullish news, palm oil staged a big rally, the highest price rose to 4,714 RMB/ton. Two months rose 12.78%.
After March: Palm oil imports have increased. Because of the decline in export data, external palm horse palm oil has limited upside, and palm oil prices have gradually retreated.
In the second quarter, although palm oil showed an upward trend, it was still suppressed by the sluggish demand and weak growth. And prices fell all the way.
At the end of June: The price had fallen to 4,200 RMB/ton, which still showed an increase compared with the beginning of the year.
On January 1, the average price of palm oil market was 4,180 RMB/ ton. On June 30, the average price of palm oil market was 4,264 RMB/ ton, and the price rose by 2.01% .
Soybean oil:
In January-February: soybean oil plants went out of stock, and prices were very high.
Under the stimulation of soaring palm oil, soybean oil ushered in a wave of rising sentiment like palm oil.
The highest price of soybean oil rose to 5,820 RMB/ton, up 13%.
After March: South American soybeans were listed on the market. The number of imported soybeans soared. Terminal food consumption was sluggish. And high stocks and multiple bearish pressures, which drives soybean oil prices to continue to decline weakly.
By the end of June: The average soybean oil market price fell back to 5,100 RMB/ton in early January. The price changed from rising to falling.
On January 1, the average price of soybean oil market was 5,160 RMB/ton. On June 30, the average price of soybean oil market was 5,146 RMB/ ton, and the overall price fell by 0.26%.
The Second Stage (July-December): The palm oil market soared in the second half of the year, flying with soybean oil. The price of palm oil rose from 4,300 RMB/ton to 6,278 RMB/ton, and the price rose by more than 2,000 yuan per ton, an increase of more than 46%.
Soybean oil rose from 5,146 RMB/ton to 6,873 RMB/ton, and the price rose by more than 1,500 yuan per ton, an increase of more than 31%.
In July-September: Indonesia and Malaysia’s major palm oil producing countries have lowered their output estimates. Crude oil has risen to support it. Malaysia palm oil futures have risen, leading palm oil to rise sharply.
However, due to the large increase in vegetable oil imports, poor terminal demand has leveraged. This rally is limited.
At the end of September: The average market price was 4,714 RMB/ ton, still rising by nearly 10%. In the fourth quarter: The MPOB report and USDA report were released. Palm oil production and inventory have been significantly reduced. Production reduction has become a foregone conclusion.
In addition, biodiesel policies have been frequently issued, and palm oil has staged crazy increases many times.
In the fourth quarter, palm oil rose by over 31%, which was the main force for the entire second half of the year.
On July 1, the average price of palm oil market was 4,290 RMB/ton, and on December 24, the average price of palm oil market was 6,278 RMB/ ton, and the price rose 46.34%.
In July-September: Driven by the sharp rise in palm oil, US soybean exports fell, the USDA report was bullish, and soybean oil also followed suit.
Due to the excessive increase in sentiment and the suppression of terminal demand, the overall rise of soybean oil in the third quarter was not as good as that in the fourth quarter. The overall increase was only 15%.
In the fourth quarte: Soybean oil was as crazy as palm oil.
Under multiple favorable bullish supports such as the USDA bullish and biodiesel policy, the price soared.
And it fell after repeated highs, and then again, the price hit new highs repeatedly.
The price of soybean oil exceeded 6,800 RMB/ ton, and the price exceeded 30%.
On July 1, the average price of soybean oil market was 5,146 RMB/ton, and on December 24, the average price of soybean oil market was 6,773 RMB/ton, and the price rose 31.61%.
In 2019, unlike palm oil and soybean oil, which experienced a weak decline in the first half of the year, rapeseed oil showed an oscillating rise throughout the year. Its overall price rose nearly 30%. It is a low-key rising variety in the vegetable oil sector.
Rapeseed oil was not dragged down by palm oil and soybean oil in the first half of the year, mainly due to limited import of raw rapeseed, insufficient supply of domestic rapeseed, high auction reserve transaction rate, and supporting high rapeseed oil prices.
In the fourth quarter, rapeseed oil also followed its footsteps driven by the overall boom in palm oil and soybean oil.
The price trend of rapeseed oil in 2019 is divided into three stages as a whole:
The First Stage (January to June):
The price of rapeseed oil fluctuated oscillating. The highest average price was 7,222 RMB/ton, up 17.06% from the beginning of the year.
In the second stage, the price of rapeseed oil rose sharply (from July to September). The highest average price was 7,635 RMB/ton, up 23.74% from the beginning of the year.
In the third stage, vegetable oil rose again at the end of October. The highest average price was 7,962 RMB/ton, and the price rose 29.05% compared to the beginning of the year.
Let's take a look at the supply and consumption of vegetable oils, and we can better understand the main reasons for the rising prices of vegetable oils in each month this year.
Supply And Consumption of Vegetable Oil (Unit: 10,000 tons)
|
|
2017/2018 |
2018/2019 |
2019/2020 |
|
Production |
2,715 |
2,192 |
2,640 |
|
Soybean Oil |
1,587 |
1,431 |
1,527 |
|
Rapeseed Oil |
589 |
569 |
563 |
|
Import |
611 |
855 |
784 |
|
Palm Oil |
358 |
495 |
440 |
|
Rapeseed Oil |
107 |
151 |
140 |
|
Soybean Oil |
48 |
78 |
75 |
|
Domestic Consumption |
3,336 |
3,338 |
3,339 |
|
Export |
29 |
27 |
27 |
|
a/d |
(40) |
(318) |
58 |
It can be seen from the vegetable oil supply and demand balance sheet in 2019 that soybean oil and rapeseed oil account for a relatively large amount of output in the vegetable oil sector.
And palm oil mainly depends on imports.
The consumption of vegetable oil is basically stable.
Among the supply, the import of vegetable oil has a large number of variables.
The import volume of vegetable oils is also a major factor influencing the surge in vegetable.
The following is the import of the three major oils in vegetable oils.
The Import Amount of Vegetable Oil in January to November, 2019
In November 2019, China's edible vegetable oil imports were 1.059 million tons, and from January to November it was 8.629 million tons. It has increased by 55.5% compared with the same period last year.
In 2019, the import amount of vegetable oil has increased dramatically, which to extent limit the crazy increase of vegetable price.
The Import Amount of Palm Oil in January to November, 2019
China’s palm oil imports in October once again ushered in a sharp increase. China’s October imports of palm oil were 795,188 tons, an increase of 73% year-on-year and an increase of 38% month-on-month.
From January to October 2019, palm oil imports reached 4.43 million tons.
The Import Amount of Soybean Oil in January to October, 2019
In October 2019, China's soybean oil imports were 100,000 tons, an increase of 11.1% from the previous month.
From January to October, China's soybean oil imports were 700,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 60.7%. Soybean oil imports in 2019 also increased significantly.
The Import Amount of Rapeseed Oil in January to October, 2019
In October 2019, China imported 150,000 tons of rapeseed oil and mustard oil, which was flat month-on-month.
From January to October, China imported 1.29 million tons of rapeseed oil and mustard oil, an increase of 26.8% year-on-year. Rapeseed oil imports in 2019 are also quite large.
Market Forecasting
Li Bing, an agricultural product analyst at SunSirs, believes that the surge in oil and fat in 2019 is mainly due to the significant decline in palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia, biodiesel policy support, and a supply gap.
It can be seen from the import volume of vegetable oil in 2019 that, regardless of the import volume of palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil, there has been a significant increase, and the loose supply situation is difficult to change.
It is expected that grease will still run at a high level in 2020, but the increase will be difficult to reach the height of this year.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com