Price trend

After the Lantern Festival, the domestic cold rolled sheet and hot rolled coil market operated with shocks and stronger. As of the 13th, the average price of the domestic hot-rolled plate market was 4,216 RMB/ton, up 1.10% from last week; The average market price of cold rolled sheet was 4,630 RMB/ton, up 0.29% from last week. At the beginning of the week, the spot price followed the weak movement of the futures market, and began to reverse in the middle of the week. There were more and more downstream inquiries, and traders explored the increase in shipment. Near the weekend, the price increase drive was limited, and traders generally stabilized the price for shipment.

Reasons for affecting the market price of steel

Inventory

According to the latest data learned by SunSirs, the social inventory of hot rolling this week was 3.1304 million tons, an increase of 14,500 tons from last week, and the weekly output was 3.0815 million tons, an increase of 2.11 million tons from last week; The social inventory of cold rolling this week was 1,455,000 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons compared with last week, and the weekly output was 8,011,000 tons, an increase of 18,500 tons compared with last week.

From the data, the inventory of cold rolled sheet and hot rolled coil was still rising, and the growth rate had slowed down. After the year, the steel plant resumed production and the overall supply increased.

Consumption

As of February 10, the sales of 17 key real estate enterprises in January 2023 totaled 148.724 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.92%; In January 2023, the total sales area was 10.6062 million square meters, down 34.07% year on year. In January 2023, the total non-bank financing of real estate enterprises was 50.85 billion yuan, down 33.1% year-on-year and down 27.0% month-on-month.

According to the latest sales data released by the China Automobile Association, in January this year, China's automobile production and sales reached 1.594 million and 1.649 million respectively, down 33.1% and 35.5% on a month-on-month basis and down 34.3% and 35% on a year-on-year basis.

It can be seen from the January data of the real estate industry and the automobile industry released last week that the performance of steel downstream consumption was not optimistic. In addition, it was rainy and snowy after the Lantern Festival, and the actual terminal resumption speed was less than expected. Steel prices were still in the stage of relying on strong expectations to push up.

Raw materials

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of the 13th, the iron ore price index was 879.11 yuan/wet ton; The coke price was 2,482 RMB/ton. Iron ore prices fluctuated at a high level, coke prices remained stable at a high level, and the production costs of steel mills did not decline significantly, which still supported steel prices.

Market outlook

The inventory showed an upward trend, the market demand had not been fully released, and the price decline of steel mills was limited under the support of cost. It is expected that the price of cold rolled sheet and hot rolled coil will be consolidated in the short term.

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