Price trend

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs (100ppi. com), the PAM commodity index on February 14 was 94.44, down 0.61 points from the previous day, down 15.31% from the highest point of 111.51 points in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 13.93% from the lowest point of 82.89 points on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs (100ppi. com), in the first half of February 2023, the mainstream market of PAM (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China's domestic market was mainly stable, with a slight decline recently; Among them, the mainstream quotation on the 1st was about 15,542.86 RMB/ton, and the main quotation on the 14th was about 15,457.14 RMB/ton, down 0.55%.

Analysis review

Since the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream demand for PAM was still weak, the manufacturer's inventory was sufficient, the market's upward momentum was insufficient, and the prices of some enterprises had been slightly adjusted downward. Although the production costs of raw materials vinyl cyanide and acrylic acid had been reduced, their market trend was upward due to the strong downstream demand; Due to the weak downstream demand of PAM, its market was mainly stable and weaker.

Raw material vinyl cyanide: according to the data of SunSirs, the market price of vinyl cyanide in the first half of February rose first, then fell, and generally rose. As of February 14, the bulk price of vinyl cyanide in the market was 10,625 RMB/ton, up 5.59% from the price of 10,062.50 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month; Among them, the highest price of the stage was 10,800 RMB/ton on February 7-10, the lowest price was 10,062.50 RMB/ton on the first day of the month, and the maximum amplitude of the half-month was 7.33%.The price of vinyl cyanide raw materials fell slightly, while the cost side declined slightly; The high starting point in the downstream had rigid support for vinyl cyanide, but with the continuous increase of the listing price of manufacturers, the market had a little resistance to the high-priced goods, and it is expected that the vinyl cyanide market will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

Acrylic acid as raw material: According to the data of SunSirs, the acrylic acid market in the first half of February was strong. Among them, the average price quoted in East China on February 1 was 7,700 RMB/ton, and the average price on February 14 was 8,200 RMB/ton, up 6.49% in half a month. Recently, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and decreased, but the cost still supported for acrylic acid. The load of production enterprises at the supply side was not high, and the market transaction was just in demand. With the full implementation of the downstream resumption of work, the demand side had gradually increased, and the focus of the acrylic acid market negotiation had been steadily rising. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will continue to operate strongly in the short term.

LNG for production: According to the data of SunSirs, in the first half of February, domestic LNG (LNG) first went down continuously and then rebounded slightly: from the main price of 6,090 RMB/ton on February 1, the market continued to decline, and fell to 5,724 RMB/ton on the 13th, down about 6%, and then rebounded to 5,808 RMB/ton on the 14th, down 4.63% in half a month. After the Spring Festival, the market resumed work in an all-round way, the supply in the market increased, the demand for replenishment in the downstream was limited, and the market began to oversupply. In some regions of the country, due to the rain and snow weather, the traffic was blocked, and the LNG plants were selling at reduced prices. Led by multiple negative factors, it is expected that the domestic LNG price will continue to fall in the short term.

Market outlook

The raw material market is up, but the PAM stock is sufficient, the downstream demand has not been significantly improved, and the order demand is insufficient. It is expected that the market will continue to be dominated by small weak shocks in the short term.

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