Price trend

As shown in the figure above, copper prices rose first and then fell this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 69,311.67 RMB/ton, up 0.36% from the price of 69,065 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and down 2.14% year on year.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, the copper price hadrisen for 6 weeks and fallen for 5 weeks in the past three months. The recent copper price had rebounded slightly.

Analysis review

Macroscopically, the inflation data of the United States in January fell for four consecutive months, but the rate of decline slowed significantly. The month-on-month growth of the PPI of the United States in January was the largest in seven months. In addition, the US non-agricultural data was much higher than expected before. The hawkish statement of the Federal Reserve said that it was necessary to continue to promote the pace of interest rate increase. The market worried that the time point of the Federal Reserve's "suspension of interest rate increase" would be significantly delayed, and the risk of interest rate increase would rise. Domestically, the domestic social finance data performed well and the domestic economic recovery was expected to strengthen, but the "weak reality" of real estate still worried the market.

Supply side: Affected by the protests in Peru, some copper mining activities had been delayed. Recently, the copper mining side had been disturbed continuously, but the duration was short. Imported copper concentrate spot TC was 78.23 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.15 dollars/ton on a weekly basis.

Demand side: the operating rate of refined copper rod last week was 61.85%, down 0.66 percentage points from the previous month; The operating rate of recycled copper rods was 66.39%, with a sharp increase of 15.76 percentage points weekly. Regenerated copper rod impacted the consumption of refined copper rod. The production of processing and downstream enterprises gradually recovered, but the consumption of refined copper was poor, and the spot price remained at a discount. The recovery of terminal consumption was weak, and the recovery of orders was poor. However, with the upcoming two sessions, domestic demand recovery is expected to be good.

Market outlook

To sum up, the ore end interference is frequent, and the index of imported copper concentrate continued to fall. From March to May, the overhaul of domestic refined copper smelters will be concentrated, and the release of output will be limited. The processing and downstream enterprises gradually resumed production, and the substitution of recycled copper for refined copper consumption was strengthened, and the recovery of refined copper demand was slightly lower than expected. LME inventory was low, and the domestic stock was accumulated. It is expected that copper prices will be dominated by volatility at high levels in the short term.

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