Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex-factory price of 2-EH in Shandong Province fell sharply this month. The price of 2-EH dropped from 10,666.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 9,166.67 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 14.06%. The year-on-year decline was 26.08%.

The 2-EH commodity index on February 27 was 66.67 points, down 3.43 points from the previous day, down 51.51% from the peak of 137.50 points in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 89.67% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Analysis review

From the manufacturer's quotation, the prices of Shandong 2-EH mainstream manufacturers fell sharply this month, and the manufacturer's inventory was average. Lihuayi’s 2-EH was quoted at 9,000 RMB/ton at the end of the month, down 1,600 RMB/ton from the beginning of the month; Jianlan Chemical’s 2-EH Unit was under maintenance; Hualu Hengsheng’s 2-EH was quoted at 9,500 RMB/ton at the end of the month, down 1,300 RMB/ton from the beginning of the month.

Upstream support was insufficient and downstream demand weakened

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream propylene market fell slightly this month. The price of propylene fell from 7,530.75 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 7,470.60 RMB/ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 0.80%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 10.80% year-on-year. Cost support was insufficient, which had a negative impact on the price of 2-EH. Downstream DOP prices fell sharply. The price of DOP dropped by 7.19% from the price of 10,710.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 9,940.00 RMB/ton at the end of the month, and down 16.56% from the same period last year.

Market outlook

The domestic 2-EH market in mid-March and early of March may fall slightly in shock, mainly in consolidation. The upstream propylene price fell slightly, the cost support was insufficient, the downstream DOP market fell sharply, the downstream manufacturers' enthusiasm for 2-EH procurement weakened. Under multiple negative factors, the product trend was downward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The 2-EH analyst of SunSirs believes that the domestic 2-EH market may fall slightly in shock in the short term under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

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