Price trend of adipic acid in the past three years
In the past three years, adipic acid in China showed a fluctuating trend. Adipic acid prices were mainly driven by costs and supply and demand. In 2020, adipic acid was at the lowest level in the last three years. The outbreak of COVID-19, the stock market crash, and the collapse of oil prices caused severe shocks in bulk commodities. In addition to the weak demand, adipic acid had been pressed on the floor friction, with the low point of 6,500 RMB/ton in May 2020. In 2021, the epidemic entered the middle stage, and the economy was gradually repaired. China took the lead in comprehensive recovery, supply and demand improved, and adipic acid strengthened with pure benzene. Until 2022, the first quarter ushered in the highest point of the whole year and the highest level in the past decade, that is, the price broke the 14,000 yuan mark in March, and then the price went down all the way, and the market returned to rationality.
In 2022, the domestic adipic acid market generally showed a trend of shocked and declined after rising. The overall decline was 19.61%. The maximum amplitude exceeded 50%.
Specifically:
From January to the first ten days of March, the price of adipic acid soared, mainly driven by the increase of pure benzene in the upstream, coupled with the supply shortage caused by the general reduction of load or shutdown of enterprises' devices, and the manufacturers took turns to sharply adjust the price to support the market, with an increase of nearly 14% at this stage. In the first ten days of March, the annual peak of 14,000 RMB/ton was seen.
From late March to September, the market started a long-term decline, with a decline of up to 34%. After March, the price trend comparison curve of pure benzene and adipic acid began to split, and the market deviated. Pure benzene continued to rise, but adipic acid continued to decline. The deviation continued until the end of June, and adipic acid manufacturers were in a long-term loss state. Enterprise inventory was high, manufacturers continued to reduce prices to de-stock, terminal demand was low, and PA66 prices were also downward all the way.
From September to the first half of October, in the face of long-term losses of enterprises, under the condition that the operating rate generally dropped to a low level of 50%, manufacturers concentrated on pushing prices to support the market, and with the cooperation of the rebound of pure benzene at the cost end, adipic acid hadrebounded. The price rose from 9,000 RMB/ton to 11,000 RMB/ton, an increase of more than 20%, but it was still far from the peak in the first quarter.
From the middle of October to the end of December, adipic acid was shocked weakly and the weak demand was still an important factor restricting the market to go up. With the recurrence of the epidemic, the downstream operating rate fell to the freezing point, the delivery speed and circulation speed of the manufacturers fell, and the market was once again shaken down, and the weak market continued until the end of the year.
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