Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, after February, the terminal demand was weak, and the market of soybean meal continued to weaken, until the beginning of March, and the market still remained unchanged. On February 1, the average market price of soybean meal was 4,648 RMB/ton. On March 9, the average market price of soybean meal was 4,240 tons, and the price fell 8.78%

Analysis review

The oscillating decline of soybean meal market was mainly affected by the following factors:

Supply: Since February, the number of imported soybeans arriving at ports had been increasing. The analysis agency predicts that the number of imported soybeans arriving at ports is expected to exceed 13 million tons from February to March. Soybean oil plants had resumed operation and soybean meal supply was loose. According to customs data, China's soybean imports totaled 16.17 million tons in January-February, up 16% from 13.94 million tons in the same period last year, setting a record for the same period in history.

Inventory: Since the middle of February, the soybean meal inventory has shown an upward trend, increasing from 450,000 tons to 600,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.55%. Near the end of the month, soybean meal inventory continued to rise.

Negative side of the market: Brazil's soybean harvest is imminent in the production area, and the increase in production has become a foregone conclusion. The raw material soybean supply is mainly loose, while Dalian soybean meal futures is weak overall. Since February, the spot market of soybean meal had been oscillating down, falling more than one month.

Demand: After February, the profit of the aquaculture industry shrank, the overall demand for feed weakened, the pace of feed factories purchasing soybean meal was slow, and the trading volume of soybean meal market declined. In March, due to the decline in the price of raw materials such as corn, feed enterprises reduced the ex-factory price of feed, and the demand for soybean meal was not good. The rise of soybean meal market was under pressure, and the market cooled.

Market outlook

According to the agricultural product analysts of SunSirs, the profit of terminal pig breeding had shrunk, and the price rise in the future is still under pressure. Specific analysis can be made from the following aspects:

Demand: the profit of the terminal aquaculture industry was shrinking, the purchase demand was poor, the aquatic feed industry is in the off-season of consumption, the stock of the feed factory is small, and the demand is poor.

In terms of supply: South American soybeans had been harvested and listed in a centralized manner. The import of soybeans to ports increased, and the supply pressure doubled.

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