The latest price of silver (March 8): 4742.33 RMB/kg, bearish in the future

Key points of analysis: the daily average market price fell 4.06%, 2.49% lower than the beginning of the month (March 1), and 11.28% lower than the early average spot market price of 5345 RMB/kg at the beginning of the year (January 1); Compared with the early average spot market price of 4368.33 RMB/kg at the beginning of October 2022 (October 1), an increase of 8.56%. The main reason for the decline of silver price on March 8 came from the macro news. Powell's semi-annual monetary policy testimony in the Senate continued to release hawkish signals, and the expectation of a 50BP interest rate increase in March was significantly higher. According to the CME Federal Reserve observation data, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25BP in March to drop sharply to 29.5%, while the probability of raising interest rates by 50BP has soared to 70.5%; The probability of raising interest rate by 25BP in May is 60.3%, and the probability of raising interest rate by 50BP is 18.6%; The probability of a 25BP interest rate increase in June is 56%, and the probability of no interest rate increase is 25.9%. The peak of the mainstream expected interest rate will move up to 5.5% - 5.75%. Short term bearish precious metals. From the perspective of speculative data, the position of silver ETF decreased by 14.3 tons to 14857.64 tons on March 7. However, in the medium and long term, the position of precious metal ETF showed a rebound trend.

Future forecast: silver prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and the downward space is narrowing.

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