The latest price of silver (March 13): 4867.67 RMB/kg is bullish in the future

Key points of analysis: the market price rose by 2.28% on March 13, 0.08% higher than the beginning of the month (March 1), and 8.93% lower than the average price of 5345 RMB/kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1); Compared with the early average spot market price of 4368.33 RMB/kg at the beginning of October 2022 (October 1), the spot market price increased by 11.43%. Last week, despite the intensification of the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase of 50BP in March, the rise of the US dollar index and the yield of US Treasuries, and the weakening of precious metals, the US non-agricultural data in February increased by 311000 people, which fell from the previous month but still far exceeded expectations; From the perspective of data, the easing of the pressure of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, together with the news of the risks caused by the bankruptcy of banks in Silicon Valley and the takeover of the Federal Deposit Insurance Company, led to the weakening of the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50BP in March; The pressure of interest rate increase on precious metals has weakened in stages, and the risk aversion brought by the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley banks has pushed the risk aversion and hedging function of noble metals. Precious metals are more sensitive to macro policy factors due to their strong monetary attributes.

Future forecast: In the short term, the price of precious metals will still be affected by tightening expectations and economic recession. However, in the medium and long term, the process of interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve and central banks is facing a slowdown, and the leading impact of interest rate increase expectation on gold price will be weakened; The impact of economic data will increase significantly and become the leading factor. In addition, the international geopolitical risk events constitute the support of gold price, and some of the international hedging funds seek the gold hedging function, so in the medium and long term, the precious metal bulls still have the strength of game, and in the short term, it is expected that the precious metal price will be stable, strong and volatile.

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