SunSirs: Sep 7
1. Prices Trend
The prices of lead swung higher this week (Sep 2-Spe 6), the average domestic market price was 17,131.25RMB/t at the beginning of this week and 17,381.25RMB/t at the end, with a weekly increase of 1.46%.
On Sep 6, the Lead Commodity Index was 105.78, 1.29 higher than that of Sep 5, 21.07% lower than the peak of 134.01 in the cycle (Nov 29, 2016), and 41.74% higher than the lowest point of 74.63 (Mar 19, 2015). (Cycle: Sep 1, 2011 to date)
2. Analysis of quotations tendency
Domestic Market: This week's lead prices continued last week's upward trend. The cumulative weekly increase was about 200RMB/t. The main trading range of spot lead was 17,150-17,475RMB/t. Driven by refinery overhaul and military parade production restriction this week, lead prices continued to rise, stimulating downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Considering price advantages, the downstream purchasing mostly favored the sources of refinery. In Shanghai, the mainstream quotation of brand lead (mainly are Shanghai Jinsha Lead, Henan Yuguang, Wanyang, Minshan, Guangdong Nanhua Lead and so on) maintained around 17,300-17,500RMB/t. Due to the high prices of lead, downstream delivery was more cautious, the market had more long order trading but less small quantity one.
International Events:
The global lead-acid battery market will be up to 52.5 billion USD in 2024. According to the latest report released by Markets and Markets, the global lead-acid battery market will reach 52.5 billion USD by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.7%. Increased demand for grid-connected renewable energy and expansion of data centers are contributing to the steady growth of the lead-acid battery market.
American lead imports declined in July than that of in June. Washington, Sep 4, Wednesday: Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the import of unforged refined lead in July was 25,733,471kg, lower than that of 33,903,190kg in June. The total import amount was 238,382,765kg (Jan-Jul, 2019). The export of unforged refined lead in July was 608,719kg, much higher than that of 258,172kg in June. The total export amount was 9,605,967kg (Jan-Jul, 2019).
Non-ferrous Industry: The Premier convened and presided over the executive meetings this week, it was decided that the support of the real economy should be increased by policy tools such as universal and directional cuts. China and US agreed to hold the thirteenth round of high-level consultation in Washington in early October, the resumption of Sino-US negotiations has alleviated the pessimistic macro-mood in the earlier period. Although the final value of PMI in U.S. manufacturing industry returned to 50 in August, which is better than expected, it is still the lowest level since September 2009. In August, ADP employment and PMI of ISM non-manufacturing in the United States were higher than expected, and the overall data was warm. In euro zone, the manufacturing PMI of France in August was higher than expected, while that of Italy was below the 50 for 11 consecutive months. Overall, this week's macro news is optimistic, the sentiment has warmed up, the dollar index has fallen at high, and this week's basic metals has rebounded sharply from low.
3. Prospect for the future
Next week, the market may have more confidence from bulls, and due to the Mid-Autumn Festival, there are only four trading days, basic metals will be easy to rise and difficult to fall, showing a common strong feature. Lead prices are expected to remain mainly swing at high next week.
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