Price trend

According to statistics from SunSirs, in March, the price of seamless pipes rose first and then decreased, with the increase exceeding the decrease. At the beginning of the month, the quotation for 20#, 108 * 4.5 seamless pipes was 5,005 RMB/ton, and at the end of the month, it rose to 5,105 RMB/ton, up 2%, and down 16.28% year-on-year.

Analysis review

Fundamentals: In early March, the price of square billets rose, and the price of tube billets rose to a new high after the year. Driven by costs, the prices of tube factories also continued to rise. However, the slow release of spot demand and the rapid rise of price had led to a decline in downstream acceptance of prices, leading to cautious procurement. After the construction of downstream processing industries, the overall market demand had rebounded slightly. In addition, the central bank's interest rate cut had a certain buffer effect on foreign negative factors, and the market attitude was cautious and optimistic. Supported by weak costs and demand, there was limited room for the price of seamless tubes to fall in March.

Export growth: According to the latest statistics from the customs, the export of seamless pipes in January was 620,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 123.56%; In February, the export of seamless pipes reached 385,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 76.87%. In January-February, China exported 1.006 million tons of seamless pipes, a year-on-year increase of 103.03%.

Market outlook

In summary, in March, as the market will enter a traditional peak season, downstream demand will continue to be released, and the seamless tube market transaction may continue to rebound, but the recovery rate of transaction this year may be relatively slow. April is still a traditional peak season, and market demand is still a rising process, but it may be relatively slow. It is expected that the market price of seamless pipes in April will still fluctuate to be stronger mainly.

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