1. Price Trend
This week (9.2-9.6), the price of 1# antimony ingot in China went down. The average market price was 37,500RMB/t at the beginning of this week, the average price was 37,750RMB/t at weekends, it had a 0.67% increase. On Sep 6, the Antimony Commodity Index was 52.55, 0.35 higher than that of Sep 5. Compared with the peak of 102.32 (Oct 16, 2012) in the cycle, it decreased 48.64%. While it was 11.86% higher than the lowest level of 46.98 (Dec 24, 2015). (Cycle: Sep 08, 2012 to date)
2. Quotation Analysis
Upstream and Downstream: This Wednesday, Antimony Trioxide followed the trend of Antimony Ingot to bottom out. Prices were stable and transactions were limited. On Friday, the average price of Antimony Trioxide was at 3,250RMB/t (99.5%) and at 33,750RMB/t (99.8%).
Domestic Market: This week, the prices of Antimony Ingot bottomed out, increasing about 250RMB/t than that of the last week. Mainly boosted by the by the success of Minmetals bidding and the gradual end of the off-season, but the market as a whole was mainly de-inventory. Although having slight boosts, the prices still depended on whether the downstream would follow up. Prices would still difficult to firm in the latter part, if without the downstream support. On Friday, the price of 2# Low Bismuth Antimony Ingot was 36,000RMB/t, the price of 1# Antimony Ingot was 36,500RMB/t, the price of 0# Antimony Ingot was 37,500RMB/t and the price of 2# High Bismuth Antimony Ingot was 35,000RMB/t.
Non-ferrous Industry: The Premier convened and presided over the executive meetings this week, it was decided that the support of the real economy should be increased by policy tools such as universal and directional cuts. China and US agreed to hold the thirteenth round of high-level consultation in Washington in early October, the resumption of Sino-US negotiations has alleviated the pessimistic macro-mood in the earlier period. Although the final value of PMI in U.S. manufacturing industry returned to 50 in August, which is better than expected, it is still the lowest level since September 2009. In August, ADP employment and PMI of ISM non-manufacturing in the United States were higher than expected, and the overall data was warm. In euro zone, the manufacturing PMI of France in August was higher than expected, while that of Italy was below the 50 for 11 consecutive months. Overall, this week's macro news is optimistic, the sentiment has warmed up, the dollar index has fallen at high, and this week's basic metals has rebounded sharply from low.
3. Prospect for the future
Next week, the market may have more confidence from bulls, and due to the Mid-Autumn Festival, there are only four trading days, basic metals will be easy to rise and difficult to fall, showing a common strong feature. Lead prices are expected to remain mainly swing at high next week.
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