1. Price Trend

The soybean oil commodity index on January 8 was 70.17, an increase of 0.92 points from yesterday. It is a 30.19% decrease from the highest point of the cycle at 100.51 on September 12, 2011. And it is a 40.28% increase from the lowest point at 50.02 on December 16, 2018 (Note: Period refers to September 1, 2011 to present).

The palm oil commodity index on January 8 was 84.41, an increase of 0.36 points from yesterday. It is a 25.22% decrease from the highest point of the cycle at 112.88 on April 10, 2012. And it is a 63.78% increase from the lowest point at 51.54 on December 16, 2018 (Note: Period refers to March 1, 2012 to present).

According to data from SunSirs, starting in December, soybean oil palm oil prices continued to rise. After New Year's Day, soybean oil and palm oil continued to perform strongly. Up to January 8, the average price of soybean oil was 7,173 RMB / ton, an increase of 10.42% from the price in early December and an increase of 2.14% from the price in early January. The average price of palm oil was 6,670 RMB / ton, an increase of 19.49% from the price in early December and an increase of 1.65% from the price in early January.

2. Market Analysis 

Soybean Oil: After the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival are approaching, and the rigid demand of the terminal catering industry will be supported. Soybean oil stocks will continue to be at the front line of 900,000 tons, repeatedly hitting record lows. In addition, soybean meal prices will continue to be low. The plant will be stopped for maintenance, the supply of soybean oil is tight, and prices have been rising all the way.

Palm Oil: Since January, Malaysia’s palm oil output has fallen sharply in the news. Domestically, palm oil arrivals in the first quarter are expected to decrease, and palm oil stocks have increased slightly. On the whole, the bullish factors still exist. Palm oil continues to rise, and soybean oil prices continue to move forward.

Data: The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (ABIOVE) released a report, predicting that Brazil's soybean oil production will increase from 8.6 million tons in the previous year to 8.8 million tons in 2020, but soybean oil exports will decrease from 1 million tons in the previous year to 300,000 tons.

According to the ITS data of the shipping survey company, from December 1 to 25, 2019, Malaysia ’s palm oil exports were 1.188 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12.8%.

3. Market Forecasting

Li Bing, an agricultural product analyst at SunSirs, believes that on the eve of the Spring Festival, the prices of soybean oil and palm oil remained strong.

After the holiday, demand weakened, and many factors were digested by the market. Soybean oil and palm oil may usher in a correction.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com