Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, the price of seamless tubes was weak and declined in April. At the beginning of the month, the quotation for 108 * 4.5 seamless tubes was 5,112.5 RMB/ton, but at the end of the month, it dropped to 4,865 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.84% and a year-on-year decrease of 22.35%.

Analysis review

In terms of raw materials, the factory price of Dongfang hot rolled tube billets was 4,470 RMB/ton, a decrease of 60 RMB/ton compared to last week. The factory price of NTS's 20# hot rolled tube billets was 4,050 RMB/ton, a decrease of 100 RMB/ton compared to the same period last week. The factory price of Tangshan Wenfeng's 20# continuous cast tube billets was 4200 RMB/ton, a decrease of 50 RMB/ton compared to last week. The downward movement in the prices of coking coal, coke, and iron ore had prompted room for a reduction in the prices of tube billets. However, this month's steel mills had not been saturated with orders, and costs remained strong and under pressure, having a strong willingness to accept orders.

In terms of tube factories: Currently, the tube factories have maintenance plans, and the majority of tube blank orders are based on rigid demand. Downstream industry demand is weak, and the tube factories have high inventory, with losses slightly shrinking. However, the tube factories still face pressure to reduce inventory.

Market outlook

In summary, social inventory continues to accumulate and expectations for May are relatively low, but there is a small amount of downstream replenishment before May Day. The overall mood of the market is pessimistic. However, the phenomenon of seamless tube factories and market inversion is widespread, and the cost still has a small supporting role for the current market. May is the traditional off-season for consumption, and the seamless tube market price is expected to remain weak.

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