1. Price trend
This week's lead market (January.6-11) had a V-shaped trend, the average price of domestic market at the beginning of the week was 14,962.50RMB/ton, and at the end of the week was 15,012.50RMB/ton, up 0.33% weekly.
On January 10, the lead commodity index was 91.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.82% from 134.01 (November 29, 2016), the highest point in the cycle, and up 22.43% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to September 1, 2011 to now).
2. Market trend analysis
Domestic market: this week, the London lead and Shanghai lead markets all showed a V-shaped low rebound trend, which led the spot lead market to stop falling and rebound. As of Friday, the mainstream price of spot lead in Shanghai was about 15,000RMB/ton, up 50RMB/ton compared with last week. The mainstream brands in the market are concentrated in South China, Jinsha, wanyang, Jinli, Shuikoushan, Hunan, etc. Near the end of the year, the market trading is light, most of the manufacturers have been off-duty, procurement is limited.
Major domestic events: take a heavy burden and embark on a long road! Formal revision of waste power battery recycling specification document: according to the prediction of national big data alliance of new energy vehicles, it is estimated that the total amount of retired power battery in China will reach 25gwh (about 200,000 tons) in 2020 and 116gwh (about 780,000 tons) in 2025. On January 2nd, when the trend of large-scale retirement of power batteries came, the Ministry of industry and information technology officially released the "industry standard conditions for comprehensive utilization of waste power batteries of new energy vehicles (2019 version)" (hereinafter referred to as the "standard conditions") and the "Interim Measures for management of industry standard announcement for comprehensive utilization of waste power batteries of new energy vehicles (2019 version)", which was previously released in 2016 The industrial standard conditions for the comprehensive utilization of waste power batteries of source vehicles and the Interim Measures for the administration of the industrial standard announcement for the comprehensive utilization of waste power batteries of new energy vehicles (Announcement No. 6, 2016 of the Ministry of industry and information technology) shall be repealed at the same time.
Quanzhou will build a waste lead-acid battery collection and transfer project, which will recycle 50,000 tons of waste batteries every year. Recently, Quanzhou ecological environment bureau announced the EIA report form of the battery centralized collection and transfer technical transformation project of Quanzhou Kaiying power appliance Co., Ltd., which will be published until November 20, 2019. At the beginning of the plant's construction in September 2000, Kaiying company had a production scale of 4 million small plates. In 2005, it completed the technical transformation project of 4 million small plates to 4 million large plates. In June 2012, it completed the operation of the battery assembly line. In 2014, after the lead workshop was rebuilt and expanded in different places, the new and old plant areas of Kaiying company were managed independently, and the environmental protection facilities were operated independently.
Nonferrous Industry: this week, the market shrouded in the risk sentiment brought about by the US Iraq conflict. Crude oil and gold soared, and nonferrous metals were passively pressured, first suppressed and then raised. As the United States announced to replace the full-scale war with economic sanctions, the risk aversion mood was eased, and the low metal level gradually picked up.
3. Future prospects
Analysts from the SunSirs believe as the zinc concentrate processing fee continues to rise, the domestic zinc output has increased substantially, and the production enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises is high, it is expected that the future zinc output will continue to rise substantially, which has a negative pressure on the zinc price; however, with the recovery of the international economic environment, the future zinc market demand is expected to rise, and the zinc price will rise strongly; the Spring Festival stock is coming, and the zinc market will rise in the near future The power is increased, and the zinc price is fully motivated. Generally speaking, the recent positive and negative of zinc market is mixed, and the overall recent positive is greater than the negative. It is expected that zinc price will rise in the future.
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